Global Change Abstracts The Swiss Contribution - SCNAT

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188 Global Change Abstracts – The Swiss Contribution | Human Dimensions screenings undertaken have shown the need to take a comprehensive approach to adaptation and its integration into development planning and sectoral decision-making, and a number of policy initiatives have been taken to promote such integration. We provide some initial guidance as to how portfolio screening can be carried out in a way that would allow agencies to assess systematically the relevance of climate change to their ongoing and planned development projects. Climatic Change, 2007, V84, N1, SEP, pp 23-44. 08.1-394 A MERGE model with endogenous technological change and the cost of carbon stabilization Kypreos S Switzerland Modelling , Economics , Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Two stylized backstop systems with endogenous technological learning (ETL) are introduced in the “model for evaluating regional and global effects” (MERGE): one for the electric and the other for the non- electric markets. Then the model is applied to analyze the impacts of ETL on carbon-mitigation policy, contrasting the resulting impacts with the situation without ETL. We model research and development (R&D) spending and learning subsidies for the demonstration and deployment stage as control variables, and we investigate the ability of this extra spending to create path-dependent experience and knowledge to aid in the implementation of carbon-free technologies. Based on model estimations and sensitivity analyses, we conclude that increased commitments for the development of new technologies to advance along their learning curves has a potential for substantial reductions in the cost of mitigating climate change and thereby helping to reach safe concentrations of carbon in the atmosphere. ( Energy Policy, 2007, V35, N11, NOV, pp 5327-5336. 08.1-395 Characterization of source-specific air pollution exposure for a large population-based Swiss Cohort (SAPALDIA) Liu L J S, Curjuric I, Keidel D, Heldstab J, Künzli N, Bayer Oglesby L, Ackermann Liebrich U, Schindler C Switzerland, USA, Spain Human & Public Health , Medicine BACKGROUND: Although the dispersion model approach has been used in some epidemiologic studies to examine health effects of traffic- specific air pollution, no study has evaluated the model predictions vigorously. METHODS: We evaluated total and traffic-specific particulate matter < 10 and < 2.5 pm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10, PM2.5), nitrogren dioxide, and nitrogen oxide concentrations predicted by Gaussian dispersion models against fixed-site measurements at different locations, including traffic-impacted, urban-background, and alpine settings between and across cities. The model predictions were then used to estimate individual subjects’ historical and cumulative exposures with a temporal trend model. RESULTS: Modeled PM10 and NO 2 predicted at least 55% and 72% of the variability of the measured PM10 and NO 2, respectively. Traffic- specific pollution estimates correlated with the NOx measurements (R-2 >= 0.77) for background sites but not for traffic sites. Regional background PM10 accounted for most PM10 mass in all cities. Whereas traffic PM10 accounted for < 20% of the total PM10, it varied significantly within cities. The modeling error for PM10 was similar within and between cities. Traffic NOx accounted for the majority of NOx mass in urban areas, whereas background NOx accounted for the majority of NOx in rural areas. The within-city NO 2 modeling error was larger than that between cities. CONCLUSIONS: The dispersion model predicted well the total PM10, NOx, and NO 2 and traffic-specific pollution at background sites. However, the model underpredicted traffic NOx and NO 2 at traffic sites and needs refinement to reflect local conditions. The dispersion model predictions for PM10 are suitable for examining individual exposures and health effects within and between cities. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2007, V115, N11, NOV, pp 1638-1645. 08.1-396 Climate risks and peak oil: Challenge for the trans disciplinary research Maibach M, Guyer M, Kläy A Switzerland Economics , Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences , Multidisciplinary Sciences Gaia Ecological Perspectives For Science and Society, 2007, V16, N3, pp 229-231. 08.1-397 Does climate policy promote development? Michaelowa A, Michaelowa K Switzerland Political Sciences , Economics , Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Climatic Change, 2007, V84, N1, SEP, pp 1-4.
Global Change Abstracts – The Swiss Contribution | Human Dimensions 08.1-398 Climate or development: is ODA diverted from its original purpose? Michaelowa A, Michaelowa K Switzerland Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences , Economics , Political Sciences We analyze the interaction of climate and development policy that has taken place since the early 1990s. Increasing dissatisfaction about the results of traditional development cooperation and the appeal of climate policy as a new policy field led to a rapid reorientation of aid flows. At the turn of the century, over 7% of aid flows were spent on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. However, the contribution of emissions mitigation projects to the central development objective of poverty reduction as specified in the Millennium Development Goals is limited and other project types are likely to be much more effective. Adaptation to climate change can be expected to have higher synergies with poverty alleviation than mitigation, primarily through its impact on health, the conservation of arable land and the protection against natural disasters. An analysis of the Clean Development Mechanism shows that projects addressing the poor directly are very rare; even small renewable energy projects in rural areas tend to benefit rich farmers and the urban population. Use of development aid for CDM projects and / or their preparation via capacity building is thus clearly not warranted. We further analyze whether the use of development aid for climate policy could be justified as a countermeasure against the emission increase related to successful development itself. However, countries that are achieving an improvement of human development from a low level are unlikely to increase their energy consumption substantially. Only at a level where the middle class expands rapidly, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions soar. Thus targeting middle class energy consumption by appliance efficiency standards and public transport-friendly urban planning are the most effective measures to address developing country emissions. Rural renewable energy provision in poor countries has a much higher impact on poverty, but a much lower impact on greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude that while there are valid reasons for long-term collaboration with emerging economies on greenhouse gas mitigation, there should be a separate budget line for such activities to avoid “obfuscation” of a decline of resources aimed at poverty alleviation. Nevertheless, mitigation will remain attractive for donors because it ensures quick disbursements and relatively simple measures of success. Moreover, mitigation activities in developing countries provide politicians 189 in industrialized countries with a welcome strategy to divert the attention of their constituencies from the lack of success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions domestically. Climatic Change, 2007, V84, N1, SEP, pp 5-21. 08.1-399 Phenology of Ixodes ricinus and infection with Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato along a North- and South-facing altitudinal gradient on Chaumont Mountain, Switzerland Moran Cadenas F, Rais O, Jouda F, Douet V, Humair P F, Moret J, Gern L Switzerland Zoology , Medicine , Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Questing Ixodes ricinus L. ticks were collected monthly from 2003 to 2005 on the north- and southfacing slopes of Chaumont Mountain in Neuchatel, Switzerland, at altitudes varying from 620 to 1,070 in. On the south-facing slope, questing tick density was higher than on the north-facing slope, and it decreased with altitude. Density tended to increase with altitude on the north-facing slope. Saturation deficit values higher than 10 mmHg and lasting for >2 mo were often recorded on the south-facing slope, explaining seasonal patterns of questing tick activity. The overall prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato was 22.4%, and prevalence differed according to exposure and among years. No difference was noticed between nymphs and adults. Four Borrelia species were identified. Mixed infections were detected in 52 ticks, B. garinii and B. valaisiana (n = 21) and B. afzelii and B. burgdorferi s.s. (n = 20) were the most frequent associations observed. The density of infected ticks varied from 3.6 to 78.7 infected nymphs per 1 00 m(2) and from 0.6 to 16.9 infected adults per 100 m(2), both slopes combined. The study on the south-facing slope was a followup of a previous study carried out at the same location during 1999-2001. Comparison of climatic data between the two periods showed a marked increase in saturation deficit. Substantial differences in density and phenology of ticks also were observed. At high elevations, ticks were significantly more abundant during the current study. This can be explained by rising temperatures recorded during summer at altitude, reaching values similar to those registered in the first study beneath. At the lowest altitude, adults were significantly less abundant, probably due to long-lasting high saturation deficits that impaired nymphal survival. The density of Borrelia-infected ticks was higher than in the previous study. Journal of Medical Entomology, 2007, V44, N4, JUL, pp 683-693.
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