Global Change Abstracts The Swiss Contribution - SCNAT

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190 Global Change Abstracts – The Swiss Contribution | Human Dimensions 08.1-400 Integrated assessment of global climate change with learning-by-doing and energyrelated research and development Müller Fürstenberger G, Stephan G Germany, Switzerland Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences , Economics , Energy & Fuels This paper presents a small-scale version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of global climate change, which is based on a global, regionally differentiated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with endogenous technological change. This model can be viewed as a basic framework for analyzing a broad range of economic issues related to climate change, in particular since technological change is represented in two ways: on the one hand, there is learning-by- doing (LbD) in non-fossil energy supply technologies, and on the other hand there is research and development (R&D)-driven energy- saving technical progress in production. Computational experiments are added for illustrating the role of technological innovation in a world both with and without cooperation in the solution of the global climate problem. Energy Policy, 2007, V35, N11, NOV, pp 5298-5309. 08.1-401 CDM potential of bagasse cogeneration in India Purohita P, Michaelowa A Germany, Switzerland Engineering , Energy & Fuels , Economics So far, the cumulative capacity of renewable energy systems such as bagasse cogeneration in India is far below their theoretical potential despite government subsidy programmes. One of the major barriers is the high investment cost of these systems. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) provides industrialized countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in developing countries to achieve a reduction in CO 2 emissions at lowest cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country. Bagasse cogeneration projects could be of interest under the CDM because they directly displace greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to sustainable rural development. This study assesses the maximum theoretical as well as the realistically achievable CDM potential of bagasse cogeneration in India. Our estimates indicate that there is a vast theoretical potential of CO 2 mitigation by the use of bagasse for power generation through cogeneration process in India. The preliminary results indicate that the annual gross potential availability of bagasse in India is more than 67 million tonnes (MT). The potential of electricity generation through bagasse cogeneration in India is estimated to be around 34TWh i.e. about 5575MW in terms of the plant capacity. The annual CER potential of bagasse cogeneration in India could theoretically reach 28 MT. Under more realistic assumptions about diffusion of bagasse cogeneration based on past experiences with the government-run programmes, annual CER volumes by 2012 could reach 20 26 million. The projections based on the past diffusion trend indicate that in India, even with highly favorable assumptions, the dissemination of bagasse cogeneration for power generation is not likely to reach its maximum estimated potential in another 20 years. CDM could help to achieve the maximum utilization potential more rapidly as compared to the current diffusion trend if supportive policies are introduced. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Energy Policy, 2007, V35, N10, OCT, pp 4779-4798. 08.1-402 The economic potential of bagasse cogeneration as CDM projects in Indonesia Restuti D, Michaelowa A Germany, Switzerland Economics , Energy & Fuels Surplus bagasse in Indonesian sugar mills is potential for arid- connected electricity-generating projects under Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) scheme. In addition, it is further perceived to considerably support the efforts to address prevailing crises in domestic sugar industry and power generation sector. This paper aims at analyzing the economic potential of bagasse cogeneration as CDM projects in Indonesia with the main deliverables of total emission reductions per year and Certified Emission Reduction (CFR) earnings. The analysis was made by following the applicable methodologies and based on publicly available data from official and other sources on the websites. The results show that with the electricity displacement potential at 260,253 MWh, Indonesia could generate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reductions as much as 240,774 (large scale) or 198,177 tCO(2) (small scale) per annum from the recently-employed low efficiency cogeneration leading to the earnings of about US$1.36 or 1.12 million, respectively. Out of 6 regional grids where the electricity from the project activities can be grid-connected, the primary emission reductions potentials are encountered in Java-Bali
Global Change Abstracts – The Swiss Contribution | Human Dimensions and Southern Sumatera grids. Additionally, various barriers in technical, institutional, financial, and other aspects have been identified as the justifications to pass the additionality test. Energy Policy, 2007, V35, N7, JUL, pp 3952-3966. 08.1-403 Short-term effects of carbon monoxide on mortality: An analysis within the APHEA project Samoli E, Touloumi G, Schwartz J, Anderson H R, Schindler C, Forsberg B, Vigotti M A, Vonk J, Kosnik M, Skorkovsky J, Katsouyanni K Greece, USA, England, Switzerland, Sweden, Italy, Netherlands, Slovenia, Czech Republic Medicine , Human & Public Health OBJECTIVES: We investigated the short-term effects of carbon monoxide on total and cardiovascular mortality in 19 European cities participating in the APHEA-2 (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach) project. METHODS: We examined the association using hierarchical models implemented in two stages. In the first stage, data from each city were analyzed separately, whereas in the second stage the cityspecific air pollution estimates were regressed on city-specific covariates to obtain overall estimates and to explore sources of possible heterogeneity. We evaluated the sensitivity of our results by applying different degrees of smoothing for seasonality control in the cityspecific analysis. RESULTS: We found significant associations of CO with total and cardiovascular mortality. A 1-mg/m(3) increase in the 2-day mean of CO, levels was associated with a 1.20% (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.63-1.77%) increase in total deaths and a 1.25% (95% CI, 0.30-2.21%) increase in cardiovascular deaths. There was indication of confounding with black smoke and nitrogen dioxide, but the pollutant- adjusted effect of CO on mortality remained at least marginally statistically significant. The effect of CO on total and cardiovascular mortality was observed mainly in western and southern European cities and was larger when the standardized mortality rate was lower. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this large study are consistent with an independent effect of CO on mortality. The heterogeneity found in the effect estimates among cities may be explained partly by specific city characteristics. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2007, V115, N11, NOV, pp 1578-1583. 191 08.1-404 A synopsis of land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) under the Kyoto Protocol and Marrakech Accords Schlamadinger B, Bird N, Johns T, Brown S, Canadell J, Ciccarese L, Dutschke M, Fiedler J, Fischlin A, Fearnside P, Forner C, Freibauer A, Frumhoff P, Hoehne N, Kirschbaum M U F, Labat A, Marland G, Michaelowa A, Montanarella L, Moutinho P, Murdiyarso D, Pena N, Pingoud K, Rakonczay Z, Rametsteiner E, Rock J, Sanz M J, Schneider U A, Shuidenko A, Skutsch M, Smith P, Somogyi Z, Trines E, Ward M, Yamagata Y Austria, USA, Australia, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Brazil, Indonesia, Luxembourg, Finland, Belgium, Spain, Netherlands, Scotland, Hungary, New Zealand, Japan Agriculture, Soil Sciences , Political Sciences , International Relations , Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences The complexities inherent in land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities have led to contentious and prolonged debates about the merits of their inclusion in the 2008-2012 first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Yet the inclusion of these activities played a key role in agreement on the general framework of the Kyoto Protocol, and LULUCF will likely continue to play a substantial part in negotiations on national commitments post-2012. The Marrakech Accords dictate which LULUCF activities are to be included under the Kyoto Protocol and provide rules on how they are to be accounted in the first commitment period. However, these rules have limitations and drawbacks that may be avoided in the structure of future commitments beyond 2012. Through adherence to the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate. Change (UN- FCCC), and the incorporation of several critical features, a future framework can more effectively address the mitigation challenges and opportunities of this sector. Environmental Science Policy, 2007, V10, N4, JUN, pp 271-282. 08.1-405 How is climate change perceived in relation to other socioeconomic and environmental threats in Nairobi, Kenya? Shisanya C A, Khayesi M Kenya, Switzerland Social Sciences , Economics , Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences This article examines the perception of climate change, in relation to 21 other socioeconomic and environmental problems, on the part of 132
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