Global Change Abstracts The Swiss Contribution - SCNAT

192 Global Change Abstracts – The Swiss Contribution | Human Dimensions
respondents to a survey conducted in the city of
Nairobi, Kenya. Factor analysis, used to condense
these interrelated problems into a few dimensions,
identified two overriding threats: the first being to
socioeconomic security, and the second to the physical
environment. Threats to socioeconomic security
explained 76.6% of the variance in the rating of environmental
and socioeconomic problems facing Nairobi,
with very high factor loadings from corruption,
unemployment, crime, street children, garbage,
transport, poverty, pollution of Nairobi River, HIV/
AIDS and immorality/promiscuity. Threats to the
physical and living environment explained 22.2% of
the variance in the rating of environmental and socioeconomic
problems facing Nairobi. We were led
to conclude that the respondents did not perceive
climate change as being a significant problem in
Nairobi. The global concern about climate change
appeared like a mere drop in the oceanic context
pervaded by problems of poverty, unemployment,
crime and corruption, etc. which Nairobi faces, as
does Kenya as a whole. Our conclusion is partially reflected
in the priorities of the Kenyan government,
which focus on poverty alleviation, the fight against
crime and graft, improved access to education, and
on addressing health problems; it also poses a challenge
to the climate change community to find ways
to making interventions relevant to local socioeconomic
reality facing a developing country city like
Nairobi. There may be a need to reconsider ‘whose
reality counts’ (borrowing from Robert Chambers,
Whose reality counts? Putting the first last, Intermediate
Technology Publications, London, p 122, 1997)
in addressing climate change: should protracted
Kyoto protocol negotiations be given priority or
should a long lasting solution be sought to socioeconomic
problems facing developing world cities such
as Nairobi? We recommend that the ongoing efforts
at integrating climate risk management, as components
of climate-sensitive sustainable development,
be studied in many settings, with a focus on the
developing world which is the most vulnerable, in
order to inform decision-making and development
of intervention measures.
Climatic Change, 2007, V85, N3-4, DEC,
pp 271-284.
08.1-406
The future of the Swiss Alps: A participatory
sustainability assessment of agricultural and
landscape scenarios
Soliva R
Switzerland
Agriculture, Soil Sciences , Social Sciences , Ecology
In the Swiss Alps, as in other European Alpine
regions, agricultural decline is leading to land
abandonment and natural reforestation, which
may have wider implications for a sustainable
development of these areas. A sustainability assessment
of three scenarios involving discussions
with a local stakeholder group was performed
as part of a case study in the Swiss canton of
Grisons. The first scenario, called “liberalisation”,
assumed withdrawal of all agricultural support.
A second scenario, called “biodiversity”, assumed
full replacement of agricultural support by biodiversity
payments. These two scenarios were compared
with a “trend” scenario, i.e., continuation
of current trends. The liberalisation scenario was
found to have the most negative consequences
on livelihoods as well as social and environmental
aspects, and it was completely rejected by the
local stakeholder group. The trend scenario was
best received, although it does not substantially
contribute to sustainable development. The biodiversity
scenario was the most controversial
scenario, with positive environmental outcomes
but negative cultural and social consequences.
Using scenarios in a participatory sustainability
assessment was found helpful both as a research
technique and for stimulating a debate about the
future of European mountain areas.
Gaia Ecological Perspectives For Science and Society,
2007, V16, N2, pp 122-129.
08.1-407
Output and abatement effects of allocation
readjustment in permit trade
Sterner T, Müller A
Sweden, USA, Switzerland
Economics , Political Sciences , International Relations
In permit trading systems, free initial allocation
is common practice. A recent example is the European
Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading
Scheme (EU-ETS). We investigate effects of different
free allocation schemes on incentives and
identify significant perverse effects on abatement
and output employing a simple multi- period
model. Firms have incentives for strategic action
if allocation in one period depends on their actions
in previous ones and thus can be influenced
by them. These findings play a major role where
trading schemes become increasingly popular
as environmental or resource use policy instruments.
This is of particular relevance in the EU-
ETS where the current period is a trial-period
before the first commitment period of the Kyoto
protocol. Finally, this paper fills a gap in the literature
by establishing a consistent terminology for
initial allocation.
Climatic Change, 2008, V86, N1-2, JAN, pp 33-49.