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oundtable • the north korean nuclear threat
North Korean nuclear facilities. It might even mistake U.S. attacks against
North Korea as impending attacks on China. But depending on the degree
and mode of consultation with allies, preventive strikes could either bolster
or undermine the regional order and allies’ faith in the United States.
Breaking Out of the Trilemma
Resolving the North Korean nuclear threat requires taking on risks
that past presidents have sidestepped. In order to do that, U.S. policymakers
must clarify their priorities. The United States wants to show leadership and
prove that it is a reliable treaty ally. It wants to show resolve and that it will
not sit idle as threats toward the homeland or U.S. allies mount. It wants to
show that the nuclear nonproliferation regime is in both the U.S. national
interest and the interest of global stability. And it wants to avoid war. But if
everything is a priority, then nothing is. The United States may not be able
to achieve all these goals.
Empowering U.S. diplomats with true maneuvering room would require
sacrificing deterrence and potentially compromising the interests of allies.
Ignoring or tacitly recognizing North Korea’s nuclear capability would
deeply weaken the nuclear taboo and make further proliferation more likely.
And changing U.S. policy toward North Korea primarily because of either
Chinese or alliance preferences would make deterrence—and by extension
war avoidance—a secondary concern.
Faced with hard choices, the United States must soon take a gamble or
else allow North Korea to gradually chip away at the nuclear nonproliferation
regime, alliance confidence, and a favorable military balance on the
peninsula. If the status quo continues for much longer, North Korea will
pose a direct threat to the U.S. homeland, calling into question all that the
United States stands for in Asia.
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