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asia policy
understand how U.S.-China relations will likely evolve over the coming
years. There are deeper forces at work in the relationship of which officials
on both sides should be cognizant. These can be thought of as five
variables that will do much to shape how each side approaches the other in
the months and years ahead.
The first variable I would identify is the political insecurity of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which manifests itself in viewing
“Western hostile forces” (a code word mainly referring to the United States)
as subverting the regime’s grip on power. This is a regular narrative in
China and deeply ingrained in the official psyche and propaganda. If the
Trump administration initiates a period where the United States draws
inward, it could actually relieve this perception in China and the CCP and
hence remove one element of tension in relations. Trump said nothing
during the campaign about China’s internal situation or human rights
(he is a businessman—and businesspeople doing business overseas tend
to view human rights policy as an unwelcome complication to advancing
their business interests). Thus, this element of tension in the relationship
might actually subside (which would be welcomed in Beijing), although
the economic and strategic tensions would remain. Conversely, it is equally
plausible that the hard-liners in the Trump administration may double
down and increase criticism of and pressure on Beijing for its repression
(which would have the opposite effect).
The second variable is Trump himself. He has already proved himself
unpredictable and unknowledgeable about world affairs. He holds no
apparent affection for China, regularly criticizing a variety of Chinese
actions. Notably, he has already broken the Taiwan taboo by questioning
the bedrock one-China policy and speaking with Taiwan’s president. The
Chinese side is accustomed to U.S. presidents following the “engagement”
framework, one-China policy, and other time-honored modalities. Thus,
the unpredictability of Trump is a huge new variable, as is his penchant to
publicly and sharply criticize others—Chinese political culture has very
limited tolerance for public criticism.
Third, there is the variable of Chinese nationalism and the country’s
need to be recognized as a leading global power. That will not change and
likely will only increase. The Chinese believe their “time has come” and
that the United States is in protracted decline. The reason this is a variable
is that it could lead to China overreaching and challenging the United
States—possibly provoking a conflict. For its part, the United States is filled
with its own narrative about “making America great again,” its sensitivity
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