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asia policy Above all, the United States must communicate to the North that it will suffer devastating and regime-ending consequences should it ever think of attacking the United States or its allies in the region. The Kim regime must come to believe that it will lose far more than it will gain by continuing its provocative course and nuclear weapons development. The big concern is that even if Washington continues with a hard-line stance against North Korea, South Korea under a new progressive leadership may pursue an entirely different policy. The only real solution for Washington then is to continue efforts to work with Seoul—regardless of who becomes the president—to upgrade the alliance. This means continually working on issues beyond the peninsula, including joint peacekeeping missions, counterterrorism, counterproliferation, counternarcotics, cybersecurity, space, missile defense, nuclear safety, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. The more the U.S-ROK alliance expands beyond its original threat-based rationale to an alliance based on common values such as democracy, human rights, and free markets, the more difficult it will be for Seoul to ignore Washington and pursue an independent course. Last, the incoming U.S. administration should continue to state its commitment to extended nuclear deterrence over South Korea. The U.S. security arrangement with South Korea since 1953, which includes a nuclear guarantee by which the United States pledges to protect South Korea, has enabled the South to disavow the development and deployment of nuclear weapons. While campaigning, when Trump was asked whether he was worried that a withdrawal of U.S. troops might lead Japan and South Korea to go nuclear, he was nonchalant about this prospect. Perhaps this was a negotiating tactic to convince the two allies to pay more of the costs associated with their protection. Regardless, it will be important for the United States to continue its commitment to defend South Korea, including through nuclear deterrence. This will discourage dangerous provocations and an attack from the North and make it less likely that the South will pursue an independent policy—including the possible development of its own nuclear arsenal—that could imperil U.S. interests in the region. Despite the increased hazards ahead on the Korean Peninsula, opportunities exist for progress if amid difficult political transitions the United States and South Korea can stay closely aligned in facing the menace from North Korea. [ 28 ]
oundtable • assessing u.s.-asia relations in a time of transition U.S.-Taiwan Relations in the Trump Administration: No Big Fixes Needed Richard C. Bush As the Obama administration officials hand off Asia policy to Donald Trump and his team, one success story is the relationship with Taiwan. Through concerted efforts and in spite of very occasional difficulties, Washington and Taipei have broadened and deepened their bilateral ties over the last eight years. The two governments are working, in the words of one U.S. official, “to build a comprehensive, durable, and mutually beneficial partnership.” 1 Going forward, continuity, not reinvention, is the most sensible path. A rift is not impossible, but if it occurs, it will be because a deterioration in Taiwan-China relations drives a wedge between Washington and Taipei. That has happened before, but it need not happen again this time around. Based on current circumstances, a cross-strait downturn is more likely to disrupt U.S.-China relations than U.S.-Taiwan relations. This essay examines the ways in which the U.S.-Taiwan relationship is both normal and unique, the changes brought by the January 2016 election of Tsai Ing-wen, and U.S. policy going forward. A Unique Relationship In some ways, the U.S. relationship with Taiwan seems perfectly normal. Its economy is complementary to that of the United States, and with a population of only 23 million people, it is still the United States’ ninth-largest overall trading partner and seventh-largest destination for agricultural exports. In 2015, U.S. two-way trade in goods with Taiwan exceeded $66 billion, a 4.5% increase from 2013. 2 In the last year, the United States became Taiwan’s second-largest trading partner after mainland China. Most significantly, Taiwan companies are the vital center of global supply chains that run from the United States through Taiwan to China richard c. bush is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he holds the Michael H. Armacost Chair and Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies and is the Director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies. He can be reached at . 1 Susan Thornton, testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, Washington, D.C., February 11, 2016 u http://docs.house.gov/ meetings/FA/FA05/20160211/104457/HHRG-114-FA05-Wstate-ThorntonS-20160211.pdf. 2 Ibid. [ 29 ]
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