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asia policy with ASEAN, it brings great opportunities for the United States to advance its interests, including through securing sea lanes, combatting transnational threats, and benefitting from the region’s economic growth. If the United States were to withdraw from regional affairs, this would lead to less order in Asia, which would be detrimental to U.S. interests. While the Trump administration will likely put its own stamp on policy toward Southeast Asia, U.S. interests will be well served by continuing down the bipartisan path of deeper engagement charted over the past decade. [ 62 ]
oundtable • assessing u.s.-asia relations in a time of transition The U.S.-Australia Alliance in an Era of Change: Living Complacently? Michael Clarke U .S. primacy is both a strategic choice and an empirical condition, and thus analysis regarding the future of U.S. primacy should focus on both ideational (i.e., policy choices) and material variables (i.e., relativities of power). 1 We are now witnessing significant shifts in the realms of U.S. primacy that carry great weight for Australia. In material terms, while the United States remains dominant across a range of measures (e.g., military spending), 2 it has faced with growing intensity the great challenge of all hegemonic powers—managing never-ceasing political and military commitments and maintaining the economic capability to meet them. 3 The Obama administration has attempted to grapple with this central challenge via the retrenchment of military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, budget sequestration, and a concerted effort to avoid new military and security commitments. 4 The results of this strategic choice to retrench U.S. commitments to a more manageable level, however, have been problematic at both the ideational and systemic levels. Ideationally, as amply demonstrated by the 2016 presidential election, we have seen the rise of a “restraint constituency” among a significant segment of the U.S. public that openly questions both the viability and desirability of maintaining U.S. primacy in international affairs. 5 In a systemic context, perceptions of U.S. retrenchment have michael clarke is an Associate Professor in the National Security College at the Australian National University. He can be reached at . 1 Robert Jervis, “International Primacy: Is the Game Worth the Candle?” International Security 17, no. 4 (1993): 52–53. 2 In 2015, U.S. military expenditure was $596 billion compared with China’s $215 billion and Russia’s $66.4 billion. See Sam Perlo-Freeman, Aude Fleurant, Pieter Wezeman, and Siemon Wezeman, “Trends in World Military Expenditure,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), SIPRI Factsheet, April 2016 u https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/EMBARGO%20FS1604%20 Milex%202015.pdf. 3 Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1987). 4 For instance, see Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” Atlantic, April 2016, 70–90; and Andreas Krieg, “Externalizing the Burden of War: The Obama Doctrine and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East,” International Affairs 92, no. 1 (2016): 97–113. 5 Trevor Thrall, “Primed against Primacy: The Restraint Constituency and U.S. Foreign Policy,” War on the Rocks, September 15, 2016 u http://warontherocks.com/2016/09/primed-against-primacythe-restraint-constituency-and-u-s-foreign-policy. [ 63 ]
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