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asia policy
Moscow has attracted attention from Washington primarily by being
disruptive, not cooperative. Putin has built his domestic reputation on
standing up to the West and overcoming U.S. attempts to control the
international system. It remains to be seen whether Putin’s carefully cultivated
image can withstand his cooperation with a domineering U.S. president.
For several years Putin has been building up the Russian military and
advertising Russia’s nuclear might—powerful symbols of the country’s Cold
War glory days. Trump has promised to prioritize U.S. military spending
and weapons purchases in turn. Can good relations between Putin and
Trump withstand a new arms race, especially at a time when Russia sees
itself as China’s ally and Trump has called into question the wisdom of U.S.
restraint toward China?
Through all the recent challenges in their relationship, the United
States and Russia have shared at least one common interest: limiting nuclear
proliferation by rogue actors like North Korea and Iran. Yet Trump has
said he may rethink the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and has also suggested
that perhaps Saudi Arabia—as well as U.S. allies South Korea and Japan in
Northeast Asia—would benefit from building their own nuclear weapons.
The Iran agreement benefits Moscow not only by delaying the appearance
of a new nuclear state near Russian borders (and a new nuclear arms race in
the Middle East) but also by opening commercial opportunities in Iran for
the Russian defense and civilian nuclear industries whose leaders are Putin’s
close allies. Can cooperative relations between Russia and the United States
survive such a fundamental disagreement about a key security issue?
The difficulty of this exercise is compounded by the fact that what
candidate Trump said on the campaign trail may not be what President
Trump champions in office. Yet words matter. One indiscreet tweet by
Trump during difficult bilateral negotiations with Russia might erase his
apparent friendship with Putin. The question then would be how the judo
master from the KGB might use Trump’s weaknesses against him, in an
effort to make the U.S. president fall from his own weight.
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