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oundtable • assessing u.s.-asia relations in a time of transition
Headwinds
The progress the Obama administration made in deepening ties with
Southeast Asia could not have happened without strong demand for U.S.
involvement in regional affairs from regional countries. This demand is
fundamentally driven by the region’s concern about being dominated by a
single outside power—such as China—and interest in having as much U.S.
trade, investment, and technical assistance as possible. These drivers will
not disappear during the Trump administration.
However, the administration faces several challenges in terms of
Southeast Asia policy. First, among its difficulties will be to demonstrate that
the United States remains a reliable partner. Southeast Asians are already
asking what an “America first” foreign policy means and whether the
United States will continue to be engaged in regional affairs. The dismissal
of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) raises major questions about what
the United States can bring to the table in terms of economic engagement,
despite high levels of FDI from the U.S. private sector. Regional countries
also wonder if the United States will continue to “sail, fly, and operate
anywhere international law allows.”
Donald Trump’s comments during his presidential campaign
regarding Muslims also create a new barrier to relations with the region,
particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei. Even if Trump adjusts
his rhetoric, he has already left a deep impression among Southeast Asian
elites and publics alike. While Indonesian and Malaysian foreign policy is
fundamentally interest-driven and not ideological, issues of religion will
hang over these relationships.
Finally, even if the Trump administration gets regional policy right,
it will find the region devoid of international leaders, with many countries
themselves looking inward. Two of Southeast Asia’s natural leaders and
obvious U.S. partners—the Philippines and Indonesia—are now led by
presidents who are popular at home but focused on internal affairs. With
Malaysia, Thailand, and Myanmar also focused on domestic issues, Vietnam
and Singapore form the vanguard of outward-looking ASEAN countries
in the near term. As a result, there is little driving substantial ASEAN
integration and cohesion over the next several years. Unfortunately, this
will constitute a risk for U.S.-ASEAN relations, as a better-integrated, more
effective ASEAN encourages U.S. policymakers to continue the at-times
difficult nature of multilateral diplomacy in Southeast Asia.
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