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asia policy
Above all, the United States must communicate to the North that it will
suffer devastating and regime-ending consequences should it ever think of
attacking the United States or its allies in the region. The Kim regime must
come to believe that it will lose far more than it will gain by continuing its
provocative course and nuclear weapons development.
The big concern is that even if Washington continues with a hard-line
stance against North Korea, South Korea under a new progressive leadership
may pursue an entirely different policy. The only real solution for Washington
then is to continue efforts to work with Seoul—regardless of who becomes
the president—to upgrade the alliance. This means continually working
on issues beyond the peninsula, including joint peacekeeping missions,
counterterrorism, counterproliferation, counternarcotics, cybersecurity,
space, missile defense, nuclear safety, and humanitarian assistance and
disaster relief. The more the U.S-ROK alliance expands beyond its original
threat-based rationale to an alliance based on common values such as
democracy, human rights, and free markets, the more difficult it will be for
Seoul to ignore Washington and pursue an independent course.
Last, the incoming U.S. administration should continue to state its
commitment to extended nuclear deterrence over South Korea. The U.S.
security arrangement with South Korea since 1953, which includes a nuclear
guarantee by which the United States pledges to protect South Korea, has
enabled the South to disavow the development and deployment of nuclear
weapons. While campaigning, when Trump was asked whether he was
worried that a withdrawal of U.S. troops might lead Japan and South
Korea to go nuclear, he was nonchalant about this prospect. Perhaps this
was a negotiating tactic to convince the two allies to pay more of the costs
associated with their protection. Regardless, it will be important for the
United States to continue its commitment to defend South Korea, including
through nuclear deterrence. This will discourage dangerous provocations
and an attack from the North and make it less likely that the South will
pursue an independent policy—including the possible development of its
own nuclear arsenal—that could imperil U.S. interests in the region. Despite
the increased hazards ahead on the Korean Peninsula, opportunities exist
for progress if amid difficult political transitions the United States and South
Korea can stay closely aligned in facing the menace from North Korea.
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