Annual Danish informative inventory report to UNECE. Emission ...

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According to the Good Practice Guidance for LRTAP Emission Inventories
(Pulles & Aardenne, 2004) uncertainty estimates should be estimated.
Uncertainty estimates include uncertainty with regard to the total emission
inventory as well as uncertainty with regard to trends.
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The Danish uncertainty estimates are based on the simple Tier 1 approach.
The uncertainty estimates are based on emission data for the base year
and year 2009 as well as on uncertainties for fuel consumption and
emission factors for each of the main SNAP source categories. For particulate
matter, 2000 is considered to be the base year, but for all other
pollutants, the base year is 1990. The applied uncertainties for activity
rates and emission factors are default values referring to Pulles &
Aardenne (2004). The uncertainty for PM is, however, estimated by
NERI. The default uncertainties for emission factors are given in letter
codes representing an uncertainty range. It has been assumed that the
uncertainties were in the lower end of the range for all sources and pollutants.
The applied uncertainties for emission factors are listed in Table
3.18. The uncertainty for fuel consumption in stationary combustion
plants is assumed to be 2 %.
Table 3.18 Uncertainty rates for emission factors, %.
SNAP
source
category
SO2 NOx NMVOC CO PM HM PAH HCB Dioxin NH3
01 10 20 50 20 50 100 100 1000 500 1000
02 20 50 50 50 500 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
03 10 20 50 20 50 100 100 1000 1000 1000
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The uncertainty estimates for stationary combustion emission inventories
are shown in Table 3.19. Detailed calculation sheets are provided in
Annex 2A-7.
The total emission uncertainty is 7.8 % for SO2, 16 % for NOx, 44 % for
NMVOC and 43 % for CO. For PM, heavy metals, HCB, dioxin and
PAH the uncertainty estimates are larger than 100 %.
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