Bulgaria - The social impact of seasonal migration

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2. Overall migration scales in the present
2.1. Emigration
2.1.1. Emigration Scales
As a whole, there are two official - though conflicting - sets of data accounting for the
number of emigrants from Bulgaria in the decade following 1989, both of them produced
by the National Statistical Institute (NSI). The first comes from border police data
combined with the NSI's specialised observations executed in 12-15 border points in
Bulgaria for the period 1991-1996, and the second - from a comparison between official
data from the population censuses organised by NSI in 1992 and 2001.
a) The first set of data is based on border police data, showing the number of Bulgarian
citizens who exited from and returned to the country in the framework of one year.
Since the difference between the two figures is not a sufficient measurement of
emigration, it was corrected through border observation data gathered on the basis of
a methodology designed by Iordan Kalchev, currently Head of the Population Statistics
Section of NSI (Natsionalen Statisticheski Institut 1992, 12; 1993, 11). The series of
inquiries on Bulgarian citizens travelling abroad was conducted from 1991 to 1996. It
took place at 12 to 15 border checkpoints through which around 2/3 of all border
crossings with the main types of transport (auto, rail, air and water) were done.
Observed were all Bulgarian citizens aged over 16 who exited or entered via the
particular checkpoint. The investigations took place during one week in April and
October in 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995 and 1996, 24 hours a day. Their goal was to establish
the number of emigrants on the basis of a set of indicators, including socio-demographic
ones. This information was to be combined with the respondents' declared answers to
3 main questions: "How much do you intend to stay in the foreign country? (few days;
up to 6 months; 6-12 months; more than a year; I will stay there; I already live there)",
"What is the reason of your travel? (business; education; health treatment; work under
a state contract; work under a private contract; excursion/holiday/guest visit;
marriage/family reunification; resettlement; I do not live in Bulgaria)", and "Would you
settle there to live/work in that country? (yes, I will stay now; yes, if I have a possibility;
I will return immediately upon reaching my travel aim)". In order to assure objectivity
and lack of administrative and official pressure on the interviewed, the survey was
executed in the "no man's land", after the conclusion of all border and duty controls in
Bulgaria.
Apart from measuring the migration potential of the Bulgarian population which will not
be discussed here, the NSI series of observations on border crossings pretended to
have helped identify the number of emigrants from Bulgaria for the period 1989-1996.
According to them, Bulgarian emigrants amounted to 654 000 people for these 8 years
(Kalchev 2001, 128, 150-2). 5
5 According to Kalchev (2001, 151), data from the 1992 census confirmed the evaluation of the emigration
flows corroborated by the border inquiries. Border inquiries yielded the number of around 420 000
emigrants for 1989-1992, while census data set the number of emigrants from Bulgaria to slightly more than
450 000 for the same period. The statistics and figures from the border inquiries are used also in Totev /
Kalchev 1999