Bulgaria - The social impact of seasonal migration

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who stated they would wait for a "green card" have been excluded. The total number
thus is 407 340 people.
Table 11. Prognostic evaluation of expected actual emigration
No. Prognostic evaluation of the actual With 12% With 15%
number of emigrants realisation realisation
1. Total 48 900 61 100
Including labour emigrants 28 200 35 300
Of them in Europe 20 700 25 900
2. During the first year (03.2001 – 03.2002) – total 12 500 15 700
Including labour emigrants 7 400 9 300
Of them in Europe 5 500 6 800
3. For the next 2 – 3 years (03.2002 – 03.2005) – total 24 000 29 900
Including labour emigrants 13 700 17 100
Of them in Europe 10 000 12 600
4. In the near future (for a period of 2 – 3 years
after 03.2005) – total 12 400 15 500
Including labour emigrants 7 100 8 900
Of them in Europe 5 200 6 500
Source: National Statistical Institute
As is evident from the table, there is a tendency towards a decreasing total number of
expected emigrants, which, depending on the respective degree of realisation, will be in
the range of 12 500 - 15 700 in the first year, 8 000 - 10 000 people in each of the next 3
years, and in the range of 4 000 - 5 000 people a year in the near future. Identical
decrease is observable as regards labour emigrants, including those who are expected
to choose destination countries in Europe. The expected labour emigration from
Bulgaria to Europe amounts to 5 500 - 6 800 people in the first year, 3 300 - 4 200 persons
in each of the next 3 years, and in the range of 1 700 - 2 200 people a year in the near
future. On the basis of these numbers, one may conclude that there is no danger of an
emigration wave from Bulgaria which could destabilise the labour markets in the EU
member-states.
There are data from other surveys which differ slightly from the abovementioned, yet
they show also that there is no large increase in the number of potential migrants.