It is difficult to make precise conclusions about the possible scope <strong>of</strong> e<strong>migration</strong> almost entirely on the basis <strong>of</strong> research <strong>of</strong> potential migrants. Yet one is able to detect a tendency showing that temporary <strong>seasonal</strong> <strong>migration</strong> dominates over the permanent one. <strong>The</strong> preferred destinations are Greece, Spain, Italy, Germany, and <strong>The</strong> Netherlands and the main motive is related to finding a job, or one that is better paid. <strong>The</strong> <strong>Bulgaria</strong>n <strong>seasonal</strong> emigrants work mostly in agriculture, construction building, domestic care, housekeeping, hotels and restaurants, and the textile industry. <strong>The</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>ile <strong>of</strong> migrants as well the destination <strong>of</strong> <strong>migration</strong> is geographically determined and depends on already created networks. So in some <strong>Bulgaria</strong>n municipalities female e<strong>migration</strong> prevails, while in others migrants are predominantly male. Migration is also ethnically specific, meaning that in some municipalities the emigrants come entirely from the Turkish ethnic group in <strong>Bulgaria</strong>, whereas in others they are ethnic <strong>Bulgaria</strong>ns. In still other municipalities, Roma e<strong>migration</strong> prevails. <strong>The</strong> fact that <strong>migration</strong> from <strong>Bulgaria</strong> has a regionally as well as ethnically specific pr<strong>of</strong>ile suggests that regulating and managing <strong>migration</strong> would require regionally and ethnically differentiated policy measures. As it is seen from the above cited table No 11, the prognostic evaluation <strong>of</strong> expected actual e<strong>migration</strong> done by the experts <strong>of</strong> the National Statistical Institute, the prognostic evaluation <strong>of</strong> expected actual e<strong>migration</strong>, done by the experts <strong>of</strong> the National Statistical Institute on the basis <strong>of</strong> preliminary data from the 2001 census, shows that in the next five years there is no danger <strong>of</strong> an e<strong>migration</strong> wave from <strong>Bulgaria</strong> which would destabilise the labour markets in the EU member-states. <strong>The</strong> number and pr<strong>of</strong>ile <strong>of</strong> immigrants to <strong>Bulgaria</strong> are better known to the <strong>of</strong>ficial authorities than the communities <strong>of</strong> <strong>Bulgaria</strong>n emigrants abroad. Concerning im<strong>migration</strong>, <strong>Bulgaria</strong> remains primarily a transit country despite the visible signs <strong>of</strong> its greater attractiveness as a final destination country manifested in the last years, and especially after the start <strong>of</strong> the EU accession negotiations in 1999. <strong>The</strong> National Police data clearly show that there is a tendency <strong>of</strong> increasing the number <strong>of</strong> foreign citizens staying legally in <strong>Bulgaria</strong> with permanent and long-term residence permits. Structurally, there are no major changes in the countries <strong>of</strong> origin <strong>of</strong> the permanent and long-term residents in <strong>Bulgaria</strong> in the last couple <strong>of</strong> years. One <strong>of</strong> the most significant tendencies is the decreasing number <strong>of</strong> citizens from CIS countries and the increasing number <strong>of</strong> Russian citizens, although the total number <strong>of</strong> CIS and Russian citizens remains stable. <strong>The</strong> traffic <strong>of</strong> foreigners to and through <strong>Bulgaria</strong> becomes more complex and better organised. Changes in legislation in 2001-2, improvement <strong>of</strong> the administrative capacity <strong>of</strong> the specialised border police institutions and the tightened and more effective control on the <strong>Bulgaria</strong>n borders led to restructuring <strong>of</strong> the channels for illegal im<strong>migration</strong> to the EU countries. <strong>The</strong> chief <strong>migration</strong> flows are from Asia and Africa, namely from Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia and Algeria. Lifting visa restrictions for short-term entry <strong>of</strong> <strong>Bulgaria</strong>n citizens in the Schengen space in April 2001 resulted in more than 4-fold decrease in the number <strong>of</strong> border-regime violations committed by <strong>Bulgaria</strong>n citizens. In 1994, a new category <strong>of</strong> immigrants was introduced into <strong>Bulgaria</strong>n legislation - refugees and people with humanitarian status <strong>of</strong> different duration, and the first statuses based on the Decree for Granting and Regulating the Refugee Status were given in 1995. From 1993 until 1 January 2003, a total <strong>of</strong> 11 253 persons (7 601 men, 1 748 women and 1 904 children) applied for refugee status. <strong>The</strong>y came from 72 states, but most <strong>of</strong> all from 35
36 Afghanistan, Iraq, Armenia, Yugoslavia and Iran. Of all the applicants, 1 356 persons (including 327 children) were granted refugee status according to the Geneva Convention <strong>of</strong> 1951. 24% <strong>of</strong> them are aged up to 17, and 76% are <strong>of</strong> 18-59 years <strong>of</strong> age. Humanitarian protection was granted to 2 668, people, <strong>of</strong> whom 595 children and 245 women.
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