Tidal Current Energy

The Prospects for Electricity and Transport Fuels to 2050
Global
A1
B1
Population
SRES scenarios
Economy
Figure 20.1 . SRES scenario structure.
( Source : Reproduced from Ref. [1] , Fig. 4-1)
Economic
Environmental
Technology
Energy
D r i v i n g F o r c e s
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The SRES team developed an interesting visualization of their scenario trajectories
in terms of the relative proportions of oil/gas, coal and non-fossil primary
energy sources compared with historical development ( Figure 20.2 (Plate 30)).
The diagram indicates the decline in contribution of coal and the rise of oil and
gas throughout the 20th century and the extent of technological change required
to move the world back towards a renewables/nuclear dominated supply chain.
Future trajectories generally exhibit a declining proportion of supply from oil and
gas, but quite diverse possibilities concerning the recovery of market share by
coal and the penetration achievable by the renewables/nuclear portfolio.
2.3 . IEA world energy outlook
The International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes an annual review of world
energy status; in even-numbered years, the publication presents an overview
of world energy demand and projections forwards, currently to 2030; in oddnumbered
years there is an in-depth analysis of areas of special interest or
regional assessments. Tables 20.1, 20.2 and 20.3 , reproduced from the 2004
analysis [4] , indicate an expectation of continued growth in energy demand in
general and electricity supply in particular, with the proportion of electricity
production from fossil fuels actually increasing from 65% to 70%.
A2
B2
(Land-use)
Agriculture
Regional