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Chapter 4<br />

The Alberta Oil Sands: Reserves<br />

and Supply Outlook<br />

F.<br />

1<br />

Rahnama , K. Elliott , R. A. Marsh and L. Philp<br />

<strong>Energy</strong> Resources Conservation Board, Calgary, Alberta, Canada<br />

Summary: Alberta, one of Canada’s 10 provinces, has crude bitumen reserves,<br />

also known as oil sands, that are contained in some of the world’s largest deposits<br />

of extra heavy crude oil. The established reserves of Alberta crude bitumen<br />

have been compared to the reserves of Saudi Arabia in size.<br />

Alberta has been the scene of large investments in its oil sands industry in the<br />

past decade. Crude bitumen production in Alberta has more than doubled in<br />

this time and is expected to reach over 3 million barrels a day over the next decade<br />

as the pace of oil sands development accelerates.<br />

This chapter presents a detailed analysis of potential production from this<br />

vast resource, with consideration of reserves, markets and the economic viability<br />

of crude bitumen production within Alberta.<br />

1 . Introduction<br />

As discoveries of conventional sources of hydrocarbons are becoming less frequent<br />

and existing reserves are being produced at an ever increasing rate,<br />

unconventional oil reserves are becoming more important to the global oil market.<br />

Furthermore, declines in the reserves of lighter crude oil have reduced the<br />

average quality of global conventional crude oil. Changes to the average viscosity<br />

of today’s global crude oil is influencing refineries to adapt to heavier<br />

crudes, creating an environment that ensures a market for larger amounts of<br />

heavy and extra heavy crude oil. In North America a number of refineries have<br />

retooled, or are in the process of retooling, in order to take heavier crude oil as<br />

1 The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and may not reflect the views of the ERCB.<br />

59

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