Tidal Current Energy

70 F. Rahnama et al.
Bitumen/(Mbpd)
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1997 1999
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Alberta demand SCO removals Bitumen removals
Figure 4.8 . Bitumen production and disposition in Alberta.
( Source : EUB, ST98-2007 [1] )
supply declines. Figure 4.8 provides a forecast for Alberta’s bitumen production
over the next decade. As deliveries of Alberta bitumen and SCO advance
into the USA, other areas to market Alberta’s rich resource are the US Gulf coast
(PADD 3) with a refining capacity of 7990 Mbpd, the US West coast (PADD 5)
with a refining capacity of 3171 Mbpd, and the US East coast (PADD 1) with
a refining capacity of 1658 Mbpd. The completion of another pipeline reversal
owned by ExxonMobil that had historically run south to north from Nederland,
Texas to Patoka, Illinois led to the first shipping of Alberta bitumen to Texas area
refineries in April 2006. Canadian crude can access the line via the Enbridge
mainline and Lakehead systems and then the Mustang Pipeline or the Kinder
Morgan Express-Platte Pipeline system. The ExxonMobil pipeline is operating
at its estimated capacity of 66 Mbpd.
6 . Long-term Bitumen Supply in Alberta
It is highly likely that the extraction of bitumen in Alberta will be similar to that
of other energy resources and will follow a somewhat symmetrical bell-shaped
curve. That is, production will peak at some point in time and may stay at that
peak for a number of years before entering a period of decline. In the 1970s, conventional
crude oil production peaked in a number of regions throughout North
America, such as Alberta, Louisiana and Texas. Furthermore, Alberta’s conventional
natural gas production peaked in 2001.
Peak oil is consistent with the theories and empirical studies that can be
found in the literature [3–5] . As noted by Hubbert, the peak forecast is based
on the reserve information available at the time (proven and probable or established).
Alternative sources of energy and conservation will reduce the rate of
growth of consumption over time and create a bumpier curve. Prolonging the
period of increasing consumption will also extend the date of the peak. Also,