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Nuclear Power (Fission)<br />

Carbon emission reductions were significant relative to gas-fired plant. The<br />

annual carbon emissions reduction from investing in 1 GW of nuclear plant is<br />

approximately 2.6 � 10 6 tonnes of CO 2 (7.125 � 10 5 tonnes of carbon) per gigawatt<br />

compared with investment in gas-fired plant (after allowing for emissions from<br />

construction of nuclear plant and mining/processing uranium) ( ‘ life-cycle emissions<br />

’ ). A program to add 6 GW of new nuclear capacity (a realistic assessment of<br />

how much could be constructed and operational by 2025) would reduce annual<br />

emissions by around 16 � 10 6 tonnes of CO 2 (4.3 � 10 6 tonnes of carbon). Valuing<br />

emissions savings at a CO 2 price of €36 or £25 per tonne gave a present value<br />

benefit of around £1.5 � 10 9 per gigawatt over 40 years from nuclear new build.<br />

With regard to the contribution to meeting target emissions, nuclear generation<br />

was cost-effective when compared with other forms of low carbon generation.<br />

Given the need for capacity both before and during the period when new nuclear<br />

capacity could be added to the system, and constraints on the speed with which a<br />

new nuclear program could be implemented, investment in new nuclear capacity<br />

would not preclude investment in other forms of low carbon generation.<br />

2.4 . Security of supply<br />

The security of supply benefits were of a smaller order of magnitude than the<br />

environmental benefits. Investment in new nuclear capacity would reduce<br />

the level of total gas consumption and gas imports in 2025. A program to add<br />

a maximum of 6 GW of new nuclear capacity by 2025 would reduce total forecast<br />

gas consumption in 2025 by around 7%. In a world where gas-fired plant is<br />

added to the power system rather than nuclear plant, this increases vulnerability<br />

in the event of a gas supply interruption. Given this vulnerability, the economic<br />

option would be to back up gas-fired plants with oil distillate-switching<br />

capability. In the event of a gas supply interruption, gas-fired plants would then<br />

be able to continue operating by burning oil distillate rather than gas.<br />

If nuclear plant is added rather than gas-fired plant, there is no longer the<br />

need to maintain such back-up capability. One benefit of nuclear generation can<br />

then be seen as the avoided cost of this capability, estimated to be of the order<br />

of £100 � 10 6 per gigawatt . In a more unstable world subject to the possibility of<br />

repeated/prolonged fuel supply interruptions, new nuclear generation can be<br />

viewed as a hedge either against high gas prices or high costs of ongoing electricity<br />

generation using oil.<br />

2.5 .<br />

Balance of costs and benefits<br />

Welfare balance of new nuclear build was positive in the central/high gas price<br />

and central/low nuclear cost worlds, and negative in the low gas price/high<br />

nuclear cost worlds. The welfare balance associated with nuclear new build<br />

relative to a do-nothing scenario where gas-fired plant is added to the power<br />

system is the sum of environmental and security of supply benefits net of any<br />

nuclear cost penalties.<br />

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