Annual Meeting - SCEC.org

Poster Abstracts | Group 1 – CSEP
(eu.cseptesting.org). It will consist of one central testing center installation hosted by ETH Zurich
and a number of testing regions. Testing regions are and will be defined based on the quality of
seismic data, the availability of forecast models, and the commitment of network operators to
provide earthquake catalog data timely and quality-controlled.
Italy is the first region to become a testing region after a detailed catalog completeness study was
performed. Based on this study, a preliminary testing region and data collection area, as well as the
source of earthquake data have been defined. Under these definitions, a range of models are
calibrated for comparative prospective testing including different flavors of the Epidemic Type
Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model and a modification of the Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities
(STEP-Italy) model. The roadmap for an operational start of the testing center will be defined at a
workshop on the Italian testing region (27 and 28 October 2008), with the target date for the start of
prospective testing set as March 1, 2009. This presentation summarizes the proposition for the
Italian testing region, the extensions to further testing regions and future plans for testing
earthquake forecast models in Europe and beyond.
1-076
THE COLLABORATORY FOR THE STUDY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY:
ESTABLISHING A TESTING CENTER IN JAPAN Tsuruoka H, Hirata N, Schorlemmer D,
Euchner F, and Jordan TH
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is promoting earthquake
predictability research by rigorous testing of earthquake forecast hypotheses. CSEP developed
standardized procedures for registering earthquake forecast models, conducting tests, and
disseminating results. The underlying Testing Center software system was developed and
deployed to several institutions to host CSEP Testing Centers. Besides California, Testing Centers
are installed in New Zealand and Europe to host prediction experiments for their regions. Here, we
present the international effort to establish a CSEP node in Japan. A prototype Testing Center is
installed the Earthquake Research Institute of the University of Tokyo and started operation. We
introduce the earthquake catalog characterization used for the definition of the Japanese testing
region, the first set of models to be tested, and the setup of the Testing Center software. This
Testing Center constitutes an open collaboration to researchers contributing earthquake forecast
models for the testing region of Japan.
1-077
FIRST RESULTS OF THE REGIONAL EARTHQUAKE LIKELIHOOD MODELS
EXPERIMENT Zechar JD, Schorlemmer D, Werner MJ, Jordan TH, and the RELM Working
Group
Successfully predicting the future behavior of a system is a poignant indication that the system is
well-understood. Certainly many details of the earthquake system remain obscure, but several
hypotheses related to earthquake occurrence and seismic hazard have been proffered, and
predicting earthquake behavior is a worthy goal and demanded by society. Along these lines, one
of the primary objectives of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) working group
was to formalize earthquake occurrence hypotheses in the form of prospective earthquake rate
forecasts in California. RELM members, working in small research groups, developed more than a
dozen 5-year forecasts; they also outlined a performance evaluation method and provided a
conceptual description of a Testing Center in which to perform predictability experiments.
Subsequently, researchers working within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake
Predictability (CSEP) have begun implementing Testing Centers in different locations worldwide,
and the RELM predictability experiment--a truly prospective earthquake prediction effort--is
110 | Southern California Earthquake Center