Annual Meeting - SCEC.org

SCEC Annual Meeting Abstracts
Plenary Presentations
Horizon Ballroom, Hilton Palm Springs Resort
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2008 – 09:30
THE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO: GETTING OUR SCIENCE USED
Jones LM
Plenary Presentation | Abstracts
This presentation will explore how earthquake science is being used to improve earthquake safety
in southern California through the Great Southern California ShakeOut. The ShakeOut Scenario is
a description of the impacts and consequences of a M7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas
Fault (USGS OFR2008-1150). The USGS partnered with SCEC, the California Geological Survey and
many other organizations to bring 300 scientists and engineers together to formulate a
comprehensive description of a plausible San Andreas earthquake. The scenario was released in
May 2008.
The ShakeOut Scenario is being used as the science behind the Great Southern California
ShakeOut: a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history,
organized to inspire Southern Californians to get ready for big earthquakes, and to prevent
disasters from becoming catastrophes. The ShakeOut drill will occur in houses, businesses, and
public spaces throughout southern California at 10AM on November 13, 2008.With the concrete
example of this earthquake, southern California is being shown that what we do now, before a big
earthquake, will determine what our lives will be like after. Specific findings of the scenario are
being used as exercises both by local governments and corporations and incorporated in a variety
of media for use in the ShakeOut. One of the most innovative developments is the “Earthquake
Recovery Game”, an interactive, online gaming experience, which will educate its gamers in
earthquake science and the results of the research while encouraging innovative approaches to
social problems in recovery.
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2008 – 09:30
OUTSTANDING RESEARCH QUESTIONS RAISED BY THE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO
Porter KA
The USGS and California Geological Survey recently released a major planning scenario document
that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a MW7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas
Fault. Major outcomes of the scenario include: fault offsets of up to 13m; peak ground velocities up
to 3 m/sec near the fault and exceeding 0.5 m/sec over 10,000 sq km; 1,800 deaths and 50,000
serious injuries; 1,600 fires that destroy the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes; and
economic losses totaling $213 billion, predominantly from fire ($87 billion), shake-related property
damage ($46 billion) and business interruption loss from water outages ($53 billion). Despite the
scenario’s short development time (15 months) and emphasis on realistic rather than probabilistic
loss estimation, its contributors applied state-of-the-art science to several study aspects, such as:
UCERF 2 estimates of slip rate and past rupture extent; dynamic as well as kinematic rupture
modeling; physics-based modeling of wave propagation using both mature and developing
community velocity models; advanced structural analysis; and extensive use of GIS. As with any
similarly ambitious effort, many research questions were raised, where new insight into
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