El costo de capital en sectores regulados y mercados ... - Esan
El costo de capital en sectores regulados y mercados ... - Esan
El costo de capital en sectores regulados y mercados ... - Esan
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6. La Tasa Libre <strong>de</strong> Riesgo<br />
6.1. Utilización <strong>de</strong>l horizonte 1928-2001<br />
Se ha <strong>de</strong> sust<strong>en</strong>tar la utilización <strong>de</strong> horizontes <strong>de</strong> largo plazo para la<br />
<strong>de</strong>terminación <strong>de</strong> los parámetros que se incorporan <strong>en</strong> el mo<strong>de</strong>lo CAPM<br />
<strong>de</strong>s<strong>de</strong> dos perspectivas:<br />
i) Pres<strong>en</strong>tando sumillas <strong>de</strong> las metodologías <strong>de</strong> reconocidos servicios que<br />
se <strong>de</strong>dican a la <strong>de</strong>terminación <strong>de</strong>l COK y a<strong>de</strong>más, refer<strong>en</strong>cias <strong>de</strong> libros<br />
o papers don<strong>de</strong> académicos suscrib<strong>en</strong> esta recom<strong>en</strong>dación.<br />
ii) Demostrando que la utilización <strong>de</strong> horizontes <strong>de</strong> corto plazo ti<strong>en</strong>e el<br />
inconv<strong>en</strong>i<strong>en</strong>te <strong>de</strong> no aislar el efecto <strong>de</strong> los ciclos económicos <strong>en</strong> la<br />
<strong>de</strong>terminación <strong>de</strong>l COK. Estos pue<strong>de</strong>n resultar ser altos o bajos –e<br />
incluso negativos– si se utiliza horizontes temporales <strong>de</strong> corto plazo. La<br />
virtud <strong>de</strong> utilizar horizontes <strong>de</strong> largo plazo es la estabilidad que otorga a<br />
los parámetros, estableci<strong>en</strong>do <strong>costo</strong>s <strong>de</strong> oportunidad <strong>de</strong> <strong>capital</strong> que<br />
<strong>de</strong>p<strong>en</strong><strong>de</strong>n <strong>de</strong> los riesgos no diversificables, <strong>de</strong>l propio accionar <strong>de</strong> la<br />
ger<strong>en</strong>cia <strong>de</strong> la Empresa o los resultados económicos y financieros <strong>de</strong> la<br />
misma, antes que <strong>de</strong> la variabilidad <strong>de</strong> los parámetros <strong>de</strong> la economía <strong>en</strong><br />
g<strong>en</strong>eral.<br />
Las recom<strong>en</strong>daciones <strong>de</strong> los especialistas sobre la utilización <strong>de</strong><br />
Parámetros con horizontes temporales <strong>de</strong> largo plazo<br />
Ibbotson Associates 10 es uno <strong>de</strong> las organizaciones <strong>de</strong> mayor especialización<br />
<strong>en</strong> el tema <strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong>terminación <strong>de</strong>l COK, por lo mismo lo que establece pue<strong>de</strong><br />
tomarse como fruto <strong>de</strong> su larga experi<strong>en</strong>cia <strong>en</strong> el tema. A continuación se<br />
pres<strong>en</strong>ta un extracto <strong>de</strong> su metodología <strong>de</strong> cálculo:<br />
Calculation Methodology<br />
The equity risk premium (ERP) is calculated by Ibbotson Associates using the returns on the<br />
S&P 500 over the income return on the appropriate horizon Treasury security. SBBI<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>s equity risk premium calculations for short-, intermediate-, and long-term horizons.<br />
However, companies are <strong>en</strong>tities that have no <strong>de</strong>fined life span and are assumed to be<br />
going concerns for ext<strong>en</strong><strong>de</strong>d time periods. In <strong>de</strong>termining a company’s value, it is<br />
important to use a long-term discount rate because the life of the company is<br />
assumed to be infinite 11 . This holds true ev<strong>en</strong> if the time horizon of the investor is for a<br />
short amount of time. The long horizon ERP is simply the arithmetic average total<br />
return for the S&P 500 less the average income return of long-term Treasury<br />
bonds measured from 1926 to pres<strong>en</strong>t.<br />
The History behind the Sev<strong>en</strong>ty-one Year History<br />
The Ibbotson Associates equity risk premium covers the time period from 1926<br />
to pres<strong>en</strong>t. The original data source for the time series comprising the equity risk premium<br />
is the C<strong>en</strong>ter for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) at the University of Chicago. The CRSP<br />
time series start in 1926. CRSP <strong>de</strong>termined that the time period around 1926 was<br />
approximately the time period where quality financial data became available. Ninete<strong>en</strong><br />
tw<strong>en</strong>ty-six was also chos<strong>en</strong> by CRSP because it inclu<strong>de</strong>s one full business cycle<br />
10 “Ibbotson Associates, foun<strong>de</strong>d in 1977 by Professor Roger Ibbotson, is a leading authority on asset allocation, providing products<br />
and services to help investm<strong>en</strong>t professionals obtain, manage and retain assets. Our company’s business lines inclu<strong>de</strong> asset<br />
allocation, investm<strong>en</strong>t consulting and planning, analytical and wealth forecasting software, educational services and a wi<strong>de</strong>ly used<br />
line of NASD-reviewed pres<strong>en</strong>tation materials. Ibbotson provi<strong>de</strong>s ext<strong>en</strong>sive training, cli<strong>en</strong>t education material, asset allocation<br />
consulting and software to help our cli<strong>en</strong>ts <strong>en</strong>hance their ability to <strong>de</strong>liver working solutions to their cli<strong>en</strong>ts. (...)” [IBBOTSON,<br />
2002]<br />
11 Los resaltados y subrayados son nuestros<br />
29