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Norsk Telefoningeniørmøte 1992 - Telenor

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have all heard the expression: “I’m from<br />

Corporate and I am here to help.” A<br />

remark that is seen by many to combine<br />

two mutually exclusive ideas in a single<br />

sentence. Nevertheless, the telecommunication<br />

suppliers that succeed will be the<br />

ones that meet this issue head on and are<br />

able to work with the multinational at all<br />

levels to agree and successfully implement<br />

global strategies locally.<br />

To summarise the points I am making, I<br />

would first observe that the major multinational<br />

companies will be the driving<br />

force behind many of the new services<br />

and products. Secondly, these services<br />

will be truly multinational and multilateral<br />

- that is they will be increasingly<br />

available around the world at all major<br />

centres of industry and commerce and<br />

available between these centres not just<br />

to these centres. Thirdly, these primary<br />

services, whatever they are - whether<br />

voice, data or image oriented or some<br />

combination of all three - will have to be<br />

fully supported by management and support<br />

information systems and by local<br />

support organisations around the world if<br />

they are going to be of maximum benefit<br />

to the users.<br />

It is also a fact that today such ubiquitous<br />

support systems and services are not<br />

available. The more far-sighted companies<br />

are beginning to deploy such organisations<br />

either through organic growth or<br />

through partnerships. It is like building a<br />

jigsaw. As you put the first pieces<br />

together the picture is not very obvious.<br />

However, as more and more pieces of the<br />

jigsaw go together the picture becomes<br />

more obvious and it is easier and easier<br />

to find more pieces that go into place. So<br />

I believe it will be with multilateral services<br />

and support, eventually they will<br />

have a momentum of their own but like<br />

the jigsaw if you have the picture on the<br />

box it helps you to determine what you<br />

are aiming for.<br />

These trends will, in turn, give added<br />

weight to the ever-increasing demand for<br />

more bandwidth. Today, our ability to<br />

deliver virtually unlimited bandwidth<br />

seems more constrained by regulation<br />

and market access than by technologies.<br />

Within the multilateral environments,<br />

this demand for more and more<br />

bandwidth is fuelled by user application<br />

needs. EDI, Virtual Private Networks,<br />

High Definition TV, FAX, Video Imag-<br />

ing, Multi-Media Applications - the list<br />

of applications is large and continues to<br />

grow, especially when one extends these<br />

applications to broadcasting. This in turn<br />

leads to a demand for improved Wide<br />

Area Networks that provide costeffective<br />

access, dynamic bandwidth<br />

management and increased address<br />

flexibility.<br />

To illustrate this point, I would like to<br />

tell you a little about some work we are<br />

currently conducting in the UK. In<br />

response to the British Government’s<br />

liberalization policy, we are evaluating<br />

the idea of laying a high-quality, highperformance<br />

fibre trunk network along<br />

the canal infrastructure in England.<br />

Obviously, it has been very important to<br />

establish the demand for such a service.<br />

Our research showed that by extrapolating<br />

current practices there would be<br />

a growth in demand for bandwidth of<br />

between 3 and 4 times the current levels<br />

by the end of the decade. However, the<br />

really interesting piece of information<br />

that emerged from this research was that,<br />

given the availability of cost-effective<br />

bandwidth, certain applications like LAN<br />

to LAN applications, file transfer<br />

CAD/CAM applications, imaging application<br />

could increase 50 fold over a five<br />

year period. The overall impact of this<br />

type of demand is very hard to assess but<br />

there is undoubtedly a demand there.<br />

In this context, I cannot forget my early<br />

days in the computer industry when 8K<br />

or 16K bytes of memory was considered<br />

normal and seemingly huge applications<br />

could be implemented on these computers.<br />

32K or 64K was considered luxurious<br />

to the point of extravagance. Today,<br />

even the most junior member of my staff<br />

would look pitifully at me if I ask<br />

him/her to work on a personal computer<br />

with less than 2 megabytes of memory<br />

and then he would require 40 megabytes<br />

of disc back-up.<br />

There is a direct parallel with bandwidth.<br />

We shall see this same seemingly<br />

insatiable demand for bandwidth spreading<br />

from local area networks where it has<br />

already taken hold, to Global Wide Area<br />

Networks.<br />

As the suppliers progressively respond to<br />

these requirements, the more confidence<br />

users will have in deploying these applications<br />

around their organisational globe.<br />

This process is inter-active, in that the<br />

more bandwidth that is available, the<br />

more widely applications demanding<br />

bandwidth will be deployed. It would<br />

seem that the process is unstoppable and<br />

it probably is but it can certainly be<br />

slowed down. It will slow down if the<br />

services and support offered are not of<br />

the highest quality and reliability.<br />

Nobody takes “bet your company decisions”<br />

lightly and users will abandon<br />

corporate telecommunication strategies if<br />

there is any suggestion that their business<br />

will be put in danger by failure to meet<br />

committed quality levels.<br />

There are many diverse but inter-related<br />

technologies driving Wide Area<br />

Networks today - SONET, FAST<br />

PACKET, SDH, FRAME RELAY, OSI,<br />

C7 SIGNALLING, BROADBAND<br />

ISDN, CELL RELAY and many others<br />

too numerous to mention, all of which<br />

will make more effective use of<br />

bandwidth and encourage both its<br />

deployment and use. But it is up to the<br />

service suppliers to translate these<br />

technologies into user benefits.<br />

Provision of these services will be investment<br />

and market issues - they are<br />

unlikely to be technology issues. At the<br />

end of the day, it will be the users who<br />

pay. Recognising this, the suppliers whoever<br />

they are, will be very sure that they<br />

address the needs of their paymasters.<br />

To put this all into context as we progress<br />

through this decade into the 21st<br />

Century, the major users, who will<br />

increasingly be the drivers of the<br />

telecommunications industry, are adjusting<br />

themselves to the new global markets<br />

presented by the new political landscapes<br />

and economies. Fundamental to their<br />

success is their ability to communicate<br />

multi-laterally. The communication services<br />

on which their survival will depend<br />

must be of the highest quality and supported<br />

locally around the globe. These<br />

services will be ever demanding on<br />

bandwidth - the availability of which will<br />

further transform the way those companies<br />

operate.<br />

Within Sprint during the eighties we<br />

developed in the USA a highly sophisticated<br />

long distance trunk network, we<br />

had even prior to the availability of that<br />

network, offered to the users the services<br />

of the largest public data network in the<br />

world. Onto these networks we have offered<br />

an increasing array of services<br />

19

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