RESUMO PALAVRAS-CHAVE - GVpesquisa

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EAESP/FGV/NPP - NÚCLEO DE PESQUISAS E PUBLICAÇÕES 2/115ABSTRACTPotential consumption indexes are indirect measurements of the capacity of a regionto absorb a certain product category. A simple linear regression method can be usedto prepare a simple and robust index with results comparable or superior to thosethat can be obtained by using indexes sold by consulting businesses. This factusually goes unobserved because in most cases no efforts are made to check if theindexes really reflect the reality they supposedly describe (this conduct is not totallyillogic for if one had access to the reality it would not be necessary to use an index).To establish a methodology and prove the above hypothesis, data about supermarketfloor space is collected for the “municípios” (counties) of the State of São Paulo; anindex is prepared and then compared to other indicators. Results validate initialhypothesis.KEY WORDSConsumption Potential; Market Potential; Sales Potential; Indexes; Supermarkets;Retail; Marketing; Linear Regression; Quantitative Market Analysis; IncomeDensity.R ELATÓRIO DE P ESQUISA Nº 12/1998
EAESP/FGV/NPP - NÚCLEO DE PESQUISAS E PUBLICAÇÕES 3/115SUMÁRIOI. Introdução ...................................................................................................... 111. Uso dos índices de potencial de consumo na administraçãomercadológica .......................................................................................... 112. Estrutura deste relatório de pesquisa......................................................... 13II. Uma provocação............................................................................................. 141. Exemplos.................................................................................................. 141.1. Primeiro............................................................................................ 141.2. Segundo............................................................................................ 152. Alguns problemas das abordagens propostas ............................................ 162.1. Quem mudou de assunto? ................................................................. 172.2. O que ficou de fora? ......................................................................... 182.3. Qual a magnitude da influência deste fator? ..................................... 182.4. Esta situação é igual à outra?............................................................ 193. Etapas na utilização de modelos ............................................................... 20III. Os índices de potencial de consumo................................................................ 221. Dimensão histórica ................................................................................... 232. Potencial absoluto..................................................................................... 243. Potencial relativo...................................................................................... 244. Potencial de vendas .................................................................................. 27R ELATÓRIO DE P ESQUISA Nº 12/1998
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