Marasi 28

EXPERT VIEW
Shipping industry to witness
key trends in 2030
By Kirsi Tikka
ABS Executive Vice
President & Senior
Maritime Advisor
Given the fast pace of technological development, it is
not truly possible to forecast the future in detail, even
for as little as 10 years. However, we can confidently
make predictions that are extrapolated from the trends
we see developing today. The shipping industry will be
transformed by increased automation, data, connectivity
and improved analytics capabilities, as well as digital alternatives
to commercial transactions.
There are two key drivers of technological development:
regulations and financial sustainability. By 2030, the
industry will be working to reach the target of reducing
GHG emissions per cargo transport by 70%. This will
be achieved with a mix of advances in ship technology,
improved efficiency of ship operations, new low carbon
fuels and propulsion alternatives, as well as market based
measures.
Prospects of shipping 2030
The ship built today will still be viable but may benefit
from or require retrofits. In 2030, most vessels will have
joined the Internet of Things, and be part of the Internet
of Ships. This will entail increased connectivity to shore
and a focus on a more efficient operation of the fleet, not
only the individual vessel.
Other new technologies to watch include additive manufacturing,
or 3D printing. Combining it with increased
reliability and robustness of systems and predictive/preventative
maintenance could introduce a step change to
inventory management of spares, and ship maintenance
and operations.
Commercial trading platforms, block chain technology
and crypto currencies will be introduced to transform and
optimize the logistics chain in some shipping sectors. This
transformation is likely to take place in advance of the
major changes in ship design and technology. All these
changes will require regulatory changes and extensive
product development and innovation. New advances in
technology must have even better safety and environmental
performance than is expected of shipping operations
today. If the transformation is implemented diligently,
then it will leave shipping a more efficient, safer
and more responsible industry than it is today.
Predictive vetting and vessel rating will have a solid
foundation
Classification will use dynamic condition data to assist
survey planning and to make surveys less disruptive and
condition based rather than calendar based.This kind of
real-time vessel performance data combined with data
analytics and machine learning will underpin a range of
decisions in the future, whether by regulators, charterers,
or rating organizations.
As a consequence of the increasingly pivotal role of
vessel data, understanding and planning how the data is
collected and used, data quality and cyber security will all
be foundational elements to be considered from design
to operations.
Many of the new technologies supporting regulatory
compliance as well as cost reductions will result from
autonomous ship development projects, but the application
of those technologies will not require new ships.
64 MAY - JUNE 2018