Juli 2011 - Danske Analyse - Danske Bank

Nordisk ØkonomiFinansiel prognoseBond and money marketsKilde: Danske MarketsCurrencyvs USDCurrencyvs DKKUSD 01-Jul 0.250.250.713.28145.3- 513.4+3m 0.250.350.903.40148- 504+6m 0.250.451.303.55146- 511+12m 0.500.851.603.70136- 549EUR 01-Jul 1.251.552.193.42-145.3 745.9+3m 1.501.752.503.65-148 746.0+6m 1.752.052.753.80-146 746.0+12m 2.002.353.053.95-136 746.0JPY 01-Jul 0.100.200.381.17117.280.7 6.36+3m 0.100.200.451.3012383 6.07+6m 0.100.200.451.3512485 6.02+12m 0.100.200.501.3511887 6.32GBP 01-Jul 0.500.831.453.5690.6160.3 822.9+3m 0.500.841.603.6092.0161 811+6m 0.500.891.803.7089.0164 838+12m 0.751.152.103.9086.0158 867CHF 01-Jul 0.250.180.512.09122.984.6 606.7+3m 0.250.250.902.5012282 611+6m 0.500.501.202.6012485 602+12m 1.001.001.602.7012491 602DKK 01-Jul 1.301.612.403.61745.9513.4 -+3m 1.551.852.703.80746504 -+6m 1.852.202.953.95746511 -+12m 2.102.503.254.10746549 -SEK 01-Jul 1.752.492.983.53914.9629.7 81.5+3m 2.252.853.303.75880595 84.8+6m 2.753.053.954.05870596 85.7+12m 2.753.303.754.05880647 84.8NOK 01-Jul 2.252.923.644.39781.4537.8 95.5+3m 2.503.053.804.75775524 96.3+6m 2.753.254.104.80770527 96.9+12m 3.503.904.304.90770566 96.9Equity marketsPrice trend Price trend Regional recommendationsRisk6 mth.Regional12-24 mth.USA Low -5%-5%10-20% OverweightJapan Low-5%-5%10-20% UnderweightEmerging markets (USD) High-5%-5%10-20% OverweightPan-Europe (EUR) High-5%-5%10-20% UnderweightNordics High -5%-5%10-20% UnderweightCommoditiesKey int.rate3m interest rate2-yr swap yield10-yr swap yieldCurrencyvs EUR20112012Average01-Jul Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 2012NYMEX WTI (US$/bbl) 95 95 103 98 104 108 112 115 118 100 113ICE Brent (US$/bbl) 110 106 116 108 112 114 116 118 120 111 117Copper 9,438 9,624 9,160 9,350 9,500 9,750 10,000 10,250 10,500 9,409 10,125Zinc 2,368 2,414 2,270 2,300 2,295 2,290 2,285 2,280 2,275 2,320 2,283Nickel/1000 23 27 24 23 24 24 25 25 26 24 25Steel 573 564 550 560 570 585 590 595 600 561 593Aluminium 2,519 2,532 2,625 2,550 2,575 2,600 2,625 2,625 2,625 2,571 2,619Gold 1,481 1,388 1,510 1,500 1,475 1,450 1,425 1,400 1,375 1,468 1,413Matif Mill Wheat 185 252 222 190 192 194 196 198 200 214 197CBOT Wheat 613 786 810 709 707 690 672 679 686 753 682CBOT Corn 624 672 661 666 671 676 681 686 691 668 684CBOT Soybeans 1,313 1,380 1,355 1,365 1,375 1,385 1,395 1,405 1,415 1,369 1,40037 | Juli 2011www.danskeresearch.com