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Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing: Behavioral ... - Arteimi.info

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The belief <strong>and</strong> disbelief measures both range from 0 to 1. The belief updating<br />

of a hypothesis supported by evidences E1 <strong>and</strong> E2, as reported in the<br />

literature [95] is given by<br />

MB (H : E1,E2) = MB (H : E1) + [ MB (H:E2) * {1 - MB (H :E1)}]<br />

= MB (H: E1) + MB (H:E2) -MB (H:E1)* MB (H:E2).<br />

This formula has a number of pragmatic attractions:<br />

i) It is symmetric with respect to the accrual of evidence from different<br />

sources. It does not matter whether we discover evidence E1 or<br />

E2 first.<br />

ii) It is a cumulative measure of beliefs for different evidences which<br />

confirm the hypothesis <strong>and</strong>, therefore, accords both with intuition<br />

<strong>and</strong> <strong>info</strong>rmation theory.<br />

We do not discuss much of certainty factor based reasoning as it is obsolete<br />

nowadays. Interested readers may get it in any textbook [12], [1] or in<br />

Shortliffe’s original works [9].<br />

9.4 Fuzzy Reasoning<br />

Fuzzy sets <strong>and</strong> logic is a relatively new discipline that has proved itself<br />

successful in automated reasoning of expert systems. It is a vast area of<br />

modern research in <strong>Artificial</strong> <strong>Intelligence</strong>. In this section, we briefly outline<br />

this discipline <strong>and</strong> illustrate its application in reasoning with inexact data <strong>and</strong><br />

incomplete knowledge.<br />

9.4.1 Fuzzy Sets<br />

In conventional set theory an element (object) of a universal set U may (or<br />

may not) belong to a given set S. In other words, the degree of membership of<br />

an object in set S is either zero or one. As an example, let us consider the set<br />

S of positive integers, formally defined as<br />

S = { s : s = positive integer}.<br />

Since the definition of positive integer is very clear, there exists no<br />

doubt to identify which elements of the universal set of numbers U belong to<br />

this set S. In case the universal set contains only positive <strong>and</strong> negative

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