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Figure 8. Uniform prior P(Hp) Here P(E11 | Hp) is p, because that’s what Hp says: the probability of getting a head is p. And P(Hp) is 1 by assumption. The continuous version of the sum rule (§2.1.2) gives as in Fig. 9. 1 E11 PE11 | H p PH P p 0 1 p dp 1/ 2 dp 0 | E11 (5) H p P p 2 Figure 9. One head in one trial observed Now the probability of heads on the next trial is: 1 P(“one more head” | E11) = P (“one more head” | E11Hp) P(Hp | E11) dp 0 The first factor in the integrand is p by definition of Hp, and equation (5) gives the second. So 2 P(“one more head” | E11) = 2 p dp 2/ 3 1 0 We can continue making trials and updating our probability distribution for Hp. Possible results are shown in Figs. 10–12. 713
With the notation Emn = “m heads observed in n trials,” these represent: P(Hp | E22) = 3p 2 P(Hp | E12) = 6p(1−p) P(Hp | E24) = 30 p 2 (1−p) 2 Figure 10. 2 heads in 2 trials Figure 11. 1 heads in 2 trials Figure 12. 2 heads in 4 trials The general formula for m heads out of n trials is: P(Hp | Emn) = [(n+1)! m!(n−m)!] p m (1−p) n−m and the formula for the probability of heads on the next trial is: P(“one more head” | Emn) = (m+1) / (n+2). This is Laplace’s rule of succession: assuming a uniform prior for Hp and m “successes” out of n independent trials, the probability μ of success on the next trial is given by μ = (m+1) / (n+2) The successive posterior distributions peak up more and more sharply as the number of trials increases (Fig. 13). The width of the peak is 2σ, where the standard deviation σ is given by 1 / 3 n and the mean μ is as just given. For a derivation of σ, see equation (6.35) in Jaynes [2, ch. 6]. The assumption of a uniform prior may or may not be justified, depending on available information. But if the prior is continuous and non-zero near μ, the shape of the posterior will often be found to resemble Fig. 13. 714
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Proceedings of the 14th Internation
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Table of Contents VOLUME 1 Preface
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Photon Measurements 326 Excess Heat
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Investigation of Deuteron-Deuteron
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Introduction to Cavitation Experime
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Bubble Driven Fusion Roger Stringha
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to the density of muon fusion syste
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4.184 Joules/calorie to give Qo. No
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References 1. M. P. Brenner, S. Hil
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Experiments on stimulation of cavit
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foil (thickness 0.1 mm) was situate
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the external surface of thick wall
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Introduction to Materials The outco
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the foils, and the effects of subse
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Material Science on Pd-D System to
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level required higher current compa
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morphology, and surface morphology
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Figure 11. Evolution of the input a
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Electrode Surface Morphology Charac
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fundamental peak; on the other hand
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RPSD@ max (x10 -32 m 4 ) 0.20 0.10
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2. V. Violante, F. Sarto, E.Castagn
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Experimental Starting with the meta
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Figure 3.1. A typical database reco
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palladium lot as received. Differen
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Condensed Matter “Cluster” Reac
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Loading Measurements A high-vacuum
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Reaction Rate Estimates An estimate
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References 1. Andrei Lipson, Brent
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Introduction to the Theory Papers P
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Foundations: Experimental Evidence,
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Such results are applicable to a wi
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electrostatic fields, that could ge
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Theory Papers 1. V. Adamenko & V.I.
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Figure 1. The general view and deta
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So with a high probability the unkn
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Potential energy of pair (without m
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the corresponding electron wave fun
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applicable in case of interaction o
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The expression in the exponent of (
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Empirical System Identification (ES
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esults of the previous sections to
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The higher the mass of a particle (
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The Hubbard model [18, 19], along w
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A B Figure 2. Atomic Arrangements o
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deuterons, their interaction is aff
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expected in D-D reactions is that w
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It is being argued that, while heav
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with odd permutations weighted by -
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20. C. Elsasser, K.M. Ho, C.T. Chan
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must have positive Bose Exchange sy
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these different statements that ref
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Fig.2 shows a pictorial representat
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(a) A Pictorial Representation of V
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esonance” can take place, in whic
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interior boundaries of the ordered
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Interface Model of Cold Fusion Talb
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D + Bloch "atom" sublayer, 3) epita
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sometimes stimulating an irreversib
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Toward an Explanation of Transmutat
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Given the well-established validity
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The next question is, therefore, if
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An Experimental Device to Test the
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Figure 1. Palladium/deuterium total
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Experimental Reaction enthalpies of
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10. J. Dufour, X. Dufour, D. Murat
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Together with the Coulomb-repulsion
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“The Coulomb Barrier not Static i
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2 16 2 gc 27 3 So, a solution for
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Moreover, we study the “nuclear e
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Then, according to the loading quan
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Having mapped that the -phase depen
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Considering the attractive force, d
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The expression (45) was partially e
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Table 1. Using the phase potential
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10. A.De Ninno et al. Europhysics L
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Fusion system still outperformed th
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Van der Waals attraction occurs at
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Quantum Fusion (QF) Quantum Fusion
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Energy exchange There is some exper
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of the weak coupling matrix element
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Figure 3. Energy levels that contri
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Input to Theory from Experiment in
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substrate, and excess heat is obser
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4. Laser stimulation Letts and Crav
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energetic particles are produced, o
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15. K. Kunimatsu, N. Hasegawa, A. K
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A Theoretical Formulation for Probl
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at some point we will require tools
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3. Matrix element example The appro
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Now the wavefunction on the RHS has
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Theory of Low-Energy Deuterium Fusi
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If mobile deuterons in a metal are
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allowed since [Z1/m1] = [Z2/m2], an
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traps (in 3g of Pd particles with a
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9. S.N. Bose, Z. Phys. 26, 178 (192
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system composed of host nuclei and
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A simple specific form of beff (p)
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Nuclear Transmutations in Polyethyl
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Furthermore, there are interesting
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The NT’s in phenanthrene [7] may
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explains why there is no neutron em
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T+T Fusion CrossSection (Barn) T+T
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science, the incident energy is so
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When the incident energy approaches
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9. Chadwick, M. B., Oblozinsky, P.,
Page 213 and 214: He = Em C + m Cm + tmn (C + m Cm
Page 215 and 216: where k 2 = (2 Md Ea / ħ ) = Md 2
Page 217 and 218: y altering the shape of the Coulomb
Page 219 and 220: Analysis and Confirmation of the
Page 221 and 222: This is the basic Langevin equation
Page 223 and 224: The fusion rate is calculated by th
Page 225 and 226: EQPET molecule must go back and con
Page 227 and 228: Introduction to Challenges and Summ
Page 229 and 230: notes that the common usage of the
Page 231 and 232: insufficient to allow us to reprodu
Page 233 and 234: in the early days of semiconductors
Page 235 and 236: Water In Acrylic Toppiece Gas Tube
Page 237 and 238: Much of this uncertainty would be r
Page 239 and 240: Figure 5. The effect of input power
Page 241 and 242: maximum values. From these values w
Page 243 and 244: considerably that they were enginee
Page 245 and 246: Technogies”, in 11th Internationa
Page 247 and 248: Self-Polarisation of Fusion Diodes:
Page 249 and 250: We propose that in this field of on
Page 251 and 252: Results A. Self-sustained voltage O
Page 253 and 254: Figure 6. Differential calorimeter
Page 255 and 256: Weight of Evidence for the Fleischm
Page 257 and 258: Figure 1. Multiple support for a hy
Page 259 and 260: P(D | T) = P(T | D) P(D) / P(T) = 0
Page 261 and 262: For more information about Bayesian
Page 263: positive is in the range 0.980 ± 0
Page 267 and 268: 3.1. Selected papers Cravens and Le
Page 269 and 270: Table 3. P(Eif | Pf) Table 4. P(Ein
Page 271 and 272: Condensed Matter Nuclear Science”
Page 273 and 274: 4. J. Breese and D. Koller, “Tuto
Page 275 and 276: Taking the nuclear origin of copiou
Page 277 and 278: The evolution of protoscience into
Page 279 and 280: References 1. Mosier-Boss, P.A., et
Page 281 and 282: Cold fusion (CF) is a potentially r
Page 283 and 284: ISCMNS has initiated a CF-dedicated
Page 285 and 286: Table 2. Current Methods and Propos
Page 287 and 288: For the CF/OSSc project, the ISCMNS
Page 289 and 290: ole of skeptical mainstream physici
Page 291 and 292: sized Pd and Pd alloy particles. Ap
Page 293 and 294: Honoring Pioneers For most fields o
Page 295 and 296: A&Z introduced new terms to describ
Page 297 and 298: The top portion of Fig. 3 shows plo
Page 299 and 300: Figure 7. New catalyst shows nano-P
Page 301 and 302: catalyst to outer vessel wall is 7
Page 303 and 304: Establishment of the “Solid Fusio
Page 305 and 306: Figure 1. Experimental Device Figur
Page 307 and 308: [The protocol for producing the ZrO
Page 309 and 310: Figure 5A. Comparison of generation
Page 311 and 312: Figure 6. Gas pressure characterist
Page 313 and 314: Note on Sources The Abstract is a r
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37. Arata Y, Zhang Y-C; Proc. Japan
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LENR Research using Co-Deposition S
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that the tritium production was spo
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(a) (b) (c) Figure 4. Images obtain
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SPAWAR Systems Center-Pacific Pd:D
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7. S. Szpak, P.A. Mosier-Boss, S.R.
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17. S. Szpak, P.A. Mosier-Boss, and
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Preparata Prize Acceptance Speech I
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Cold Fusion Country History Project
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2. “Condensed Matter Nuclear Scie
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need for a coordinated effort in ma
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Colloid J. USSR 48, 8(1986)). In 19
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scientists on the problem of Cold F
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Financial support for the conferenc
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Author Index Pages are in Volume 1
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Wang, J., 299 Watanabe, A., 338 Wei
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