Volume 2 - LENR-CANR

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for the case E2 = false, E8 = true, E10 = false, E11 = false, E17 = true, E18 = true, E26 = true, E28 = true. (For the subscripts in the second expression, recall that the values of k, number of criteria satisfied, are 2, 4, 3, 1, 4, 4, 4, 4 for the respective papers numbered 2, 8, …, 28.) For a general collection of papers, not necessarily those of Fig. 14, the expressions are M f P(| R false) P ( 1 P ) 4 0 P( | R true) k m k f N M k P ( 1 P ) k nk mk where N is the total number of papers, M is the number reporting excess heat, nk is the number of papers in class k (i.e. k enabling criteria satisfied) and mk is the number of those reporting excess heat. Integrating out the P’s gives the probability of the observed quantities (criteria satisfied, heat reported) conditional on R: P( observed | R false) M! ( N M )! ( N 1)! P 4 ( observed | R true) m ! ( )! ( k 0 k nk mk nk 721 1)! and the likelihood ratio is the second of these quantities divided by the first. For the 8 selected papers, n0 = 0, n1 = 1, n2 = 1, n3 = 1, n4 = 5 N = 8 m0 = 0, m1 = 0, m3 = 0, m4 = 0, m5 = 5 M = 5 P(observed | R = false) = 1/504 P(observed | R = true) = (1/1)(1/2)(1/2)(1/2)(1/6) = 1/48 The likelihood ratio is therefore 504/48, or 10.5 (exactly). This is to be compared with the value of 10.025 obtained numerically with the applet, using a 5-point discrete approximation to a uniform prior for the P’s. It appears that the use of such a discrete approximation has not resulted in serious error in the computed likelihood ratio. There is no problem in generalizing from 5 classes of papers (0, 1, … , 4 criteria satisfied) to 16 classes (all distinct subsets of the 4 criteria): just let k above index the 16 classes and adjust the limits of k in the products accordingly. Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency for this work. References 1. D. Cravens and D. Letts, “The enabling criteria of electrochemical heat: beyond a reasonable doubt,” Proc. 14th International Conference on Condensed Matter Nuclear Science (ICCF-14), Washington, D.C., August 10–15, 2008 2. E. T. Jaynes, Probability Theory: the Logic of Science, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2003 3. F. V. Jensen, Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs, Springer-Verlag, New York, 2001.
4. J. Breese and D. Koller, “Tutorial on Bayesian networks,” , 1997 5. K. Murphy, “A brief introduction to graphical models and Bayesian networks,” , 1998 6. A. Yap, J.R. Santos et al. (CIspace Group, Laboratory for Computational Intelligence, University of British Columbia), available for download under “Belief and Decision Networks” at ; see also “Terms of Use” at 7. I. J. Good, Probability and the Weighing of Evidence, C. Griffin, London, 1950 8. E. T. Jaynes, “Confidence intervals vs. Bayesian intervals,” in W. L. Harper and C. A. Hooker (eds.), Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science, vol. II, 175–257, D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 1976 9. D. Cravens and D. Letts, personal communication 10. R. Johnson and M. Melich, “Weight of Evidence for the Fleischmann-Pons Effect,” in J. Marwan (ed.), Low-Energy Nuclear Reactions Sourcebook, American Institute of Physics, in press 722
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Proceedings of the 14th Internation
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Table of Contents VOLUME 1 Preface
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Photon Measurements 326 Excess Heat
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Investigation of Deuteron-Deuteron
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Introduction to Cavitation Experime
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Bubble Driven Fusion Roger Stringha
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to the density of muon fusion syste
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4.184 Joules/calorie to give Qo. No
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References 1. M. P. Brenner, S. Hil
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Experiments on stimulation of cavit
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foil (thickness 0.1 mm) was situate
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the external surface of thick wall
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Introduction to Materials The outco
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the foils, and the effects of subse
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Material Science on Pd-D System to
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level required higher current compa
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morphology, and surface morphology
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Figure 11. Evolution of the input a
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Electrode Surface Morphology Charac
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fundamental peak; on the other hand
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RPSD@ max (x10 -32 m 4 ) 0.20 0.10
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2. V. Violante, F. Sarto, E.Castagn
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Experimental Starting with the meta
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Figure 3.1. A typical database reco
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palladium lot as received. Differen
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Condensed Matter “Cluster” Reac
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Loading Measurements A high-vacuum
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Reaction Rate Estimates An estimate
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References 1. Andrei Lipson, Brent
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Introduction to the Theory Papers P
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Foundations: Experimental Evidence,
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Such results are applicable to a wi
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electrostatic fields, that could ge
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Theory Papers 1. V. Adamenko & V.I.
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Figure 1. The general view and deta
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So with a high probability the unkn
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Potential energy of pair (without m
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the corresponding electron wave fun
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applicable in case of interaction o
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The expression in the exponent of (
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Empirical System Identification (ES
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esults of the previous sections to
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The higher the mass of a particle (
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The Hubbard model [18, 19], along w
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A B Figure 2. Atomic Arrangements o
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deuterons, their interaction is aff
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expected in D-D reactions is that w
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It is being argued that, while heav
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with odd permutations weighted by -
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20. C. Elsasser, K.M. Ho, C.T. Chan
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must have positive Bose Exchange sy
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these different statements that ref
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Fig.2 shows a pictorial representat
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(a) A Pictorial Representation of V
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esonance” can take place, in whic
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interior boundaries of the ordered
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Interface Model of Cold Fusion Talb
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D + Bloch "atom" sublayer, 3) epita
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sometimes stimulating an irreversib
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Toward an Explanation of Transmutat
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Given the well-established validity
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The next question is, therefore, if
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An Experimental Device to Test the
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Figure 1. Palladium/deuterium total
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Experimental Reaction enthalpies of
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10. J. Dufour, X. Dufour, D. Murat
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Together with the Coulomb-repulsion
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“The Coulomb Barrier not Static i
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2 16 2 gc 27 3 So, a solution for
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Moreover, we study the “nuclear e
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Then, according to the loading quan
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Having mapped that the -phase depen
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Considering the attractive force, d
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The expression (45) was partially e
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Table 1. Using the phase potential
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10. A.De Ninno et al. Europhysics L
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Fusion system still outperformed th
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Van der Waals attraction occurs at
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Quantum Fusion (QF) Quantum Fusion
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Energy exchange There is some exper
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of the weak coupling matrix element
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Figure 3. Energy levels that contri
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Input to Theory from Experiment in
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substrate, and excess heat is obser
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4. Laser stimulation Letts and Crav
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energetic particles are produced, o
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15. K. Kunimatsu, N. Hasegawa, A. K
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A Theoretical Formulation for Probl
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at some point we will require tools
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3. Matrix element example The appro
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Now the wavefunction on the RHS has
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Theory of Low-Energy Deuterium Fusi
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If mobile deuterons in a metal are
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allowed since [Z1/m1] = [Z2/m2], an
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traps (in 3g of Pd particles with a
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9. S.N. Bose, Z. Phys. 26, 178 (192
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system composed of host nuclei and
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A simple specific form of beff (p)
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Nuclear Transmutations in Polyethyl
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Furthermore, there are interesting
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The NT’s in phenanthrene [7] may
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explains why there is no neutron em
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T+T Fusion CrossSection (Barn) T+T
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science, the incident energy is so
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When the incident energy approaches
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9. Chadwick, M. B., Oblozinsky, P.,
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He = Em C + m Cm + tmn (C + m Cm
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where k 2 = (2 Md Ea / ħ ) = Md 2
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y altering the shape of the Coulomb
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Analysis and Confirmation of the
Page 221 and 222: This is the basic Langevin equation
Page 223 and 224: The fusion rate is calculated by th
Page 225 and 226: EQPET molecule must go back and con
Page 227 and 228: Introduction to Challenges and Summ
Page 229 and 230: notes that the common usage of the
Page 231 and 232: insufficient to allow us to reprodu
Page 233 and 234: in the early days of semiconductors
Page 235 and 236: Water In Acrylic Toppiece Gas Tube
Page 237 and 238: Much of this uncertainty would be r
Page 239 and 240: Figure 5. The effect of input power
Page 241 and 242: maximum values. From these values w
Page 243 and 244: considerably that they were enginee
Page 245 and 246: Technogies”, in 11th Internationa
Page 247 and 248: Self-Polarisation of Fusion Diodes:
Page 249 and 250: We propose that in this field of on
Page 251 and 252: Results A. Self-sustained voltage O
Page 253 and 254: Figure 6. Differential calorimeter
Page 255 and 256: Weight of Evidence for the Fleischm
Page 257 and 258: Figure 1. Multiple support for a hy
Page 259 and 260: P(D | T) = P(T | D) P(D) / P(T) = 0
Page 261 and 262: For more information about Bayesian
Page 263 and 264: positive is in the range 0.980 ± 0
Page 265 and 266: With the notation Emn = “m heads
Page 267 and 268: 3.1. Selected papers Cravens and Le
Page 269 and 270: Table 3. P(Eif | Pf) Table 4. P(Ein
Page 271: Condensed Matter Nuclear Science”
Page 275 and 276: Taking the nuclear origin of copiou
Page 277 and 278: The evolution of protoscience into
Page 279 and 280: References 1. Mosier-Boss, P.A., et
Page 281 and 282: Cold fusion (CF) is a potentially r
Page 283 and 284: ISCMNS has initiated a CF-dedicated
Page 285 and 286: Table 2. Current Methods and Propos
Page 287 and 288: For the CF/OSSc project, the ISCMNS
Page 289 and 290: ole of skeptical mainstream physici
Page 291 and 292: sized Pd and Pd alloy particles. Ap
Page 293 and 294: Honoring Pioneers For most fields o
Page 295 and 296: A&Z introduced new terms to describ
Page 297 and 298: The top portion of Fig. 3 shows plo
Page 299 and 300: Figure 7. New catalyst shows nano-P
Page 301 and 302: catalyst to outer vessel wall is 7
Page 303 and 304: Establishment of the “Solid Fusio
Page 305 and 306: Figure 1. Experimental Device Figur
Page 307 and 308: [The protocol for producing the ZrO
Page 309 and 310: Figure 5A. Comparison of generation
Page 311 and 312: Figure 6. Gas pressure characterist
Page 313 and 314: Note on Sources The Abstract is a r
Page 315 and 316: 37. Arata Y, Zhang Y-C; Proc. Japan
Page 317 and 318: LENR Research using Co-Deposition S
Page 319 and 320: that the tritium production was spo
Page 321 and 322: (a) (b) (c) Figure 4. Images obtain
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SPAWAR Systems Center-Pacific Pd:D
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7. S. Szpak, P.A. Mosier-Boss, S.R.
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17. S. Szpak, P.A. Mosier-Boss, and
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Preparata Prize Acceptance Speech I
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Cold Fusion Country History Project
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2. “Condensed Matter Nuclear Scie
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need for a coordinated effort in ma
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Colloid J. USSR 48, 8(1986)). In 19
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scientists on the problem of Cold F
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Financial support for the conferenc
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Author Index Pages are in Volume 1
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Wang, J., 299 Watanabe, A., 338 Wei
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