PEAK OIL

Recommendations

Info

Table 2: Predictions regarding developments in oil production Past predictions about oil production developments Date of prediction Source Peak production Assumed total of conventional oil production 1972 ESSO “Oil will become increasingly scarce after the year 2000” 2100 gigabarrels 1972 Report to the UN “Likely that 2500 gigabarrels Conference on the maximum Human Environment production will have been reached by 2000” 1974 SPRU, University of Sussex 1976 British Ministry of Energy not specified 1800–2480 Peak oil: “ca. 2000” not specified 1977 Hubbert Peak oil: 1996 2000 gigabarrels (Nehring) 1977 Ehrlich et al. Peak oil: 2000 1900 gigabarrels 1979 Shell “Production plateau within the next 25 years.” not specified 1979 BP (“Oil crisis… again?“) Peak oil (non- Communist world): 1985 1981 World Bank “Production plateau around the turn of the century” not specified 1900 gigabarrels 1995 Petroconsultants Peak oil: 2005 1800 gigabarrels 1997 Ivanhoe Peak oil: 2010 approx. 2000 gigabarrels 1997 Edwards Peak oil: 2020 2836 gigabarrels 1998 IEA World Energy Peak oil: 2014 2300 gigabarrels Outlook 1998 (sample case) 1999 US Geological Survey Peak oil: ca. 2010 approx. 2000 (USGS) (Magoon) gigabarrels 1999 Campbell Peak oil: ca. 2010 2000 gigabarrels 100
2000 Bartlett Peak oil: 2004 or (including polar and deep-sea) 2000 or 3000 2019 gigabarrels 2000 IEA World Energy Peak oil: “after 3345 gigabarrels Outlook 2000 2020” (from USGS) 2000 Energy Information Peak oil: 2016–2037 3003 gigabarrels Administration (US Department of Energy) (from USGS) 2001 Deffeyes Peak oil: 2003–2008 approx. 2000 gigabarrels 2002 Smith Peak oil: 2011–2016 2180 gigabarrels 2002 “Nemesis” Peak oil: 2004–2011 1950-2300 gb equiv. Source: www.oildepletion.org 101
Page 1 and 2:
Armed Forces, Capabilities and Tech
Page 3:
Foreword The Bundeswehr Transformat
Page 6 and 7:
Frequent questions #1 What Does Pea
Page 8 and 9:
1. Introduction In this first part
Page 10 and 11:
production development of oil field
Page 12 and 13:
2. The Importance of Oil 2.1. Oil a
Page 14 and 15:
identifies the maintaining of free
Page 16 and 17:
utilizable for small non-state grou
Page 18 and 19:
and, in turn, on the respective pro
Page 20 and 21:
Note: Producer countries as well as
Page 22 and 23:
Figure 2: The Overall Potential of
Page 24 and 25:
3. Possible Developments after Glob
Page 26 and 27:
demanded resource and (2) by succes
Page 28 and 29:
Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) bo
Page 30 and 31:
diplomacy and the provision of attr
Page 32 and 33:
y bilateral agreements, the intensi
Page 34 and 35:
3.1.2 Changed Distribution of Roles
Page 36 and 37:
Figure 4: Variance in the Relation
Page 38 and 39:
its fundamental philosophy. 94 As a
Page 40 and 41:
3.1.3 Exploration of Further and Al
Page 42 and 43:
Natural gas as an extension of the
Page 44 and 45:
With an increasing transfer of nucl
Page 46 and 47:
Figure 5: International Land Leases
Page 48 and 49:
area, adapting it optimally to the
Page 50 and 51: Food sector uncertainties If nothin
Page 52 and 53: Upheaval in economic structures Sin
Page 54 and 55: marketing and using motor vehicles
Page 56 and 57: 3.2 The Systemic Risk of Exceeding
Page 58 and 59: In the medium term, the global econ
Page 60 and 61: cases, to a collapse. The danger of
Page 62 and 63: Conflicts can arise when the global
Page 64 and 65: constellations, which would be visi
Page 66 and 67: Germany could achieve further diver
Page 68 and 69: 4.2 Shaping Supply Relationships wi
Page 70 and 71: term strategy for the development o
Page 72 and 73: Since conventional oil resources ar
Page 74 and 75: uncertainty of future defence budge
Page 76 and 77: 4.4 Potential for Conflict and Coop
Page 78 and 79: total number of deployed armed forc
Page 80 and 81: 4.5. The Proliferation of Nuclear T
Page 82 and 83: Further issues / need for research:
Page 84 and 85: Non-state actors could also increas
Page 86 and 87: Concentrating energy relations in l
Page 88 and 89: which is connected with mobility an
Page 90 and 91: Further issues / need for research:
Page 92 and 93: The development of an external ener
Page 94 and 95: Frequent questions #1 What Does Pea
Page 96 and 97: and that there will therefore be no
Page 98 and 99: #2 How Do Critics Argue against Pea
Page 102 and 103: #3 What Types of Resources are ther
Page 104 and 105: #4 What is the Difference between C
Page 106 and 107: #6 How Do Oil Refineries Work? The
Page 108 and 109: #8 Are there Ways for the Bundesweh
Page 110 and 111: 110
Page 112: Further Peak Oil Task Force Reports
show all

PEAK OIL

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?