PEAK OIL

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uncertainty of future defence budgeting, and the insufficient definition of genuinely common interests among EU member states, an intense debate about the nature of military operations the EU is willing and able to perform is both difficult and overdue. All things considered, the integration of economic interests and aspects of supply security into security policy and interministerial cooperation in this field is likely to be the central issue of security discourse in the years to come. In Germany, such discussions of interests have – owing to national sensitivities - so far not been proactive, open, unbiased and transparent but have rather taken the form of short-lived debates in the wake of specific events, such as following the resignation of former Federal President Horst Köhler. 179 A clear cut long-term definition of national interests and a balance between ethical values and selfinterest in politics is, however, of vital importance for a coherent foreign, security and development policy promoting long-term goals that otherwise would yield to the short-term goal of supply security, compelled by problems resulting from peak oil. 179 On the difficulties of an open discussion about security policy that includes economic interests, cf. the media response to recent statements by the Minister of Defence at the 9th Congress on European Security & Defence in Berlin on 9 November 2010, http://www.behoerden-spiegel.de/Internet/nav/7e5/7e530f4b-3f71-3c21-a3b2- 1717b988f2ee.htm (accessed on 11 November 2010), and: Bundesverband für Sicherheitspolitik an Hochschulen, Schwerpunkt Wirtschaft und Sicherheit, “Interessen ohne Alternativen?”, ADLAS, Magazin für Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik, Vol. 4, No. 3/2010. 74
Further issues / need for research: 1. Which concepts and alternatives can be prepared and developed for the future relation between value and self-interest based foreign policy in Germany? 2. Which potential problems or dangers are inherent in the integration of economic interests such as energy security into strongly value-oriented areas of policy including, for instance, development, security and defence policy? 3. How can a society-overarching discourse on Germany’s security interests be shaped, and which specific challenges will policymakers be faced with in this context? 75
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Armed Forces, Capabilities and Tech
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Foreword The Bundeswehr Transformat
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Frequent questions #1 What Does Pea
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1. Introduction In this first part
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production development of oil field
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2. The Importance of Oil 2.1. Oil a
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identifies the maintaining of free
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utilizable for small non-state grou
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and, in turn, on the respective pro
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Note: Producer countries as well as
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Figure 2: The Overall Potential of
Page 24 and 25: 3. Possible Developments after Glob
Page 26 and 27: demanded resource and (2) by succes
Page 28 and 29: Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) bo
Page 30 and 31: diplomacy and the provision of attr
Page 32 and 33: y bilateral agreements, the intensi
Page 34 and 35: 3.1.2 Changed Distribution of Roles
Page 36 and 37: Figure 4: Variance in the Relation
Page 38 and 39: its fundamental philosophy. 94 As a
Page 40 and 41: 3.1.3 Exploration of Further and Al
Page 42 and 43: Natural gas as an extension of the
Page 44 and 45: With an increasing transfer of nucl
Page 46 and 47: Figure 5: International Land Leases
Page 48 and 49: area, adapting it optimally to the
Page 50 and 51: Food sector uncertainties If nothin
Page 52 and 53: Upheaval in economic structures Sin
Page 54 and 55: marketing and using motor vehicles
Page 56 and 57: 3.2 The Systemic Risk of Exceeding
Page 58 and 59: In the medium term, the global econ
Page 60 and 61: cases, to a collapse. The danger of
Page 62 and 63: Conflicts can arise when the global
Page 64 and 65: constellations, which would be visi
Page 66 and 67: Germany could achieve further diver
Page 68 and 69: 4.2 Shaping Supply Relationships wi
Page 70 and 71: term strategy for the development o
Page 72 and 73: Since conventional oil resources ar
Page 76 and 77: 4.4 Potential for Conflict and Coop
Page 78 and 79: total number of deployed armed forc
Page 80 and 81: 4.5. The Proliferation of Nuclear T
Page 82 and 83: Further issues / need for research:
Page 84 and 85: Non-state actors could also increas
Page 86 and 87: Concentrating energy relations in l
Page 88 and 89: which is connected with mobility an
Page 90 and 91: Further issues / need for research:
Page 92 and 93: The development of an external ener
Page 94 and 95: Frequent questions #1 What Does Pea
Page 96 and 97: and that there will therefore be no
Page 98 and 99: #2 How Do Critics Argue against Pea
Page 100 and 101: Table 2: Predictions regarding deve
Page 102 and 103: #3 What Types of Resources are ther
Page 104 and 105: #4 What is the Difference between C
Page 106 and 107: #6 How Do Oil Refineries Work? The
Page 108 and 109: #8 Are there Ways for the Bundesweh
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Page 112: Further Peak Oil Task Force Reports
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