PEAK OIL

pumping stations due to acts of sabotage. The rebel groups aim to achieve a larger share of
the local energy companies’ profits for the region’s population. 99
The exploration of new conventional and non-conventional oil reserves in not yet explored
regions also brings about a diversification of transport routes. 100 Although not likely to equal
the importance of the Strategic Ellipse, their complex global branching is expected to place
much higher quantitative demands on infrastructure security. As a result, it is hardly possible
to ensure comprehensive protection against a coordinated interruption of transport routes at
various points. Thus the oil infrastructure gains a considerably more important position
amongst the critical infrastructures (CI) 101 . However, highly industrialized societies,
technologically complex and highly differentiated in terms of labour division, react very
vulnerably to all types of interference with energy supply. 102 In this context, the infrastructure
of gas as a partial substitute for oil and, at a later point, the electricity infrastructure, are
likely to develop even more into critical infrastructures and require increased protection. 103
It must be assumed that both states and private companies will adapt to these growing
requirements and will increase the security of energy/oil production and transport routes as
well as infrastructure. This could lead to an increased degree of activity on the part of private
actors when it comes to creating security and stability – a task which originally is a
governmental responsibility.
If the industrialised countries' dependence on oil persists, they can be expected to seek to
increase their influence on the countries of the Strategic Ellipse to ensure continued energy
supply and create a favourable environment for stable production and delivery. This would
not inevitably be achieved by military engagements, however, it would in principle generate a
further increase in the number of external actors.
In the three areas described above, a shift in the activities and functions of state and privatesector
actors becomes apparent. While states are likely to become increasingly involved in the
private-company sector or possibly make efforts to intervene in this sector as part of their
attempts to secure their oil supply, private companies could find themselves in a very strong
position in certain fields that would give them options of action at the same eye level as
governments but would also force them to occasionally assume originally governmental
functions in order to continue pursuing their primarily economic targets.
99 For an overview, cf. Redaktion Weltalmanach, ed., Der Fischer Weltalmanach 2010: Zahlen, Daten, Fakten (Frankfurt am Main, 2010),
http://www.bpb.de/wissen/A5Z5MS,3,0,Nigeria.html, (accessed on 27 October 2010).
100 Cf. Chapter 3.1.3.
101 Critical infrastructures are defined as "organizational and physical structures and facilities of such vital importance to a nation's society and economy that their failure
or degradation would result in sustained supply shortages, significant disruption of public safety and security, or other dramatic consequences." Cf. Federal Ministry of the
Interior, National Strategy for Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP Strategy) (Berlin, June 2009), 4,
http://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/544770/publicationFile/27031/kritis.pdf (accessed on 13 October 2010; the link refers to the German version).
102 Cf. ibid., 10. In addition, there is a "vulnerability paradox" that can be identified in these societies: increasing robustness and less susceptibility to failure leads to the
development of a very deceptive feeling of security. In this case, the effects of a "failure anyway" situation are disproportionately high: To the extent that a country seems to
be not very vulnerable to failure in terms of its supply services, each incident of failure has an even greater impact.
103 In this context, cf. Chapter 3.1.3. The increase in the importance of electricity infrastructure in efforts to achieve energy independence becomes particularly clear.
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