PEAK OIL

The international community as well as every single country therefore have a vital interest in
secure oil supplies. Nowadays, this is relatively easily realised via the world market. OPEC,
the leading cartel on the oil market, for the most part has proved willing to cooperate even in
crisis situations: The mutual dependence between exporters and importers helps to create a
favourable atmosphere – at least from a market-economy perspective.
The systemic relevance and strategic significance that is ascribed to oil in particular and to
secure energy supplies in general is also reflected in various strategic documents of states and
international organisations.
Already the White Paper 2006 on German Security Policy and the Future of the Bundeswehr,
for example, referred to energy security as one of the main challenges of German security
policy. It states that the task of supplying Germany and Europe with energy on a sustainable
and competitive basis faces challenges such as global growth in energy demands, increasing
regional and interregional energy trade, proliferation risks, and increasing environmental
protection requirements. It also states that in addition there is a need to improve access to
energy and thus the chances of economic development in developing countries. "Energy
issues", it says in the White Paper "will play an ever more important role for global security in
future." 19
The European Security Strategy (ESS) of 2003 considers the EU’s foreseeable dependence on
energy imports, which is expected to rise from 50% (current figure) to 70% by 2030, to be an
issue of concern. 20
The debate in the US, too, clarifies the growing importance of national energy supply. In
2001, the then US Vice President stated in the document that became known as the "Cheney
Report" that the daily import of crude oil into the United States would have to increase by
60% between 2001 and 2010 and declared that the Gulf Region was vital to American
interests. Against this background, Cheney’s proposal to the White House was that securing
America’s energy should be recognised as a priority of foreign and economic policy. 21 The
National Security Strategy of the new administration under Barack Obama, which was
approved in May 2010, also recognises future energy supply as an essential factor for the
country’s competitiveness and prosperity and considers it necessary to make increased efforts
to guarantee this supply. 22 In this context, the document declares that the development of
new sources of energy forms a part of the strategy’s approach. 23 At the same time, it explicitly
Friedrichs, "Global energy crunch: how different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario", in Energy Policy, 38 (8), August 2010, 4562-4569,
http://www.qeh.ox.ac.uk/pdf/pdf-research/Global%20Energy%20Crunch.pdf (preprinted version accessed on 11 October 2010).
19 Cf. Federal Ministry of Defence, White Paper 2006 on German Security Policy and the Future of the Bundeswehr (Berlin, October 2006), 1-123 (here: 20),
http://www.bmvg.de/fileserving/PortalFiles/C1256EF40036B05B/W26UYEPW631INFODE/WB2006_oB_sig.pdf.pdf (accessed on 13 October 2010; the link refers to the
German version).
20 Cf. European Security Strategy. A Secure Europe in a Better World (Brussels, 2003), 3ff. http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cmsUpload/031208ESSIIDE.pdf
(accessed on 11 October 2010; the link refers to the German version).
21 Cf.Lühr Henken, Die Rolle des Militärs bei der Energiesicherung 'des Westens'", contribution at the klima & energie – macht – arbeit Conference, Hamburg,
3 November 2007, http://www.oekologische-plattform.de/texte/energiekonferenz_henken.pdf (accessed on 13 October 2010).
22 Cf. National Security Strategy, White House (Washington, May 2010), 9,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf (accessed on 13 October 2010).
23 Cf. ibid., 2.
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