PEAK OIL

2.2 Oil as a Potential Conflict Factor
The above comments refer to the aspect of strategic resource security and, in connection with
this, the question as to under what conditions and with what means efforts to this end can be
implemented cooperatively or conflictively. Since conflicts rarely have a single cause, it is not
possible to determine beyond doubt to what extent resources have actually contributed to
their development. To date, four conflict constellations have been mainly discussed in
connection with oil: 30
(1) conflicts between oil exporters and importers, where oil importers intervene
politically or militarily in exporting countries or where exporters pursue a more
aggressive foreign policy by increasing oil revenues,
(2) conflicts between oil importers, which can also take the form of surrogate conflicts,
(3) conflicts between oil exporters, e.g. through cross-border deposits or through direct
access to the resources of neighbouring countries by way of conflictive actions, and
(4) conflicts in oil-exporting countries, either in the form of distribution or secession
conflicts or attempts to assume central power if it is associated with access to
resources – both of which might be supported by third parties.
As a rule, it cannot be concluded from the existence of competition or conflicts in general that
there will be an increase in violent confrontations and wars since the constellations
addressed here must by no means escalate into violent conflicts. In the past, the most
frequent form of oil-related conflicts have been conflicts in oil-exporting countries. 31 At first
glance, such conflicts also seem more likely in future in fragile states that are highly
dependent on the export of resources if, for example, distribution conflicts can no longer be
solved cooperatively within a society. However, export income could also lead to the
containment of conflicts and increased stability through improved social policy, strengthened
security apparatuses and similar measures. It already becomes clear in this context that the
resource – in this case oil – can only have a conflictive effect in conjunction with other
conflict variables such as a lack of national capacity to solve problems and the absence of fair
distribution mechanisms.
Not only competition for scarce resources but also a certain surplus of resources can hold
conflict potential, prolong conflicts or stand in the way of peaceful solutions. 32 The nature of
the resource may also influence the form of conflict. Diamonds, for example, are a relatively
easily exploitable and transportable resource for which there is an international black
market. 33 Raw materials such as oil or natural gas, on the other hand, are not as easily
30 Cf. Matthias Basedau, "Erdölkriege – Kriege der Zukunft?", in GIGA Focus Global, No. 6 (Hamburg, 2007), http://www.gigahamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/gf_global_0706.pdf
(accessed on 11 October 2010).
31 Cf. ibid., 5.
32 Cf. Peacebuilding Support Office (PBSO), From Conflict to Peacebuilding: The Role of Natural Resources and Environment, May 2008,
http://www.un.org/en/events/environmentconflictday/pdf/08.05.2008%20WGLL%20Background%20Note.pdf (accessed on 11 October 2010).
33 This is why it was possible for warlords in Sierra Leone at the end of the 1990s to finance a violent conflict that lasted for several years and during the course of which
many thousands of people were killed.
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