PEAK OIL

4.6 Critical Energy Infrastructure
Under conditions of peak oil, the appeal of energy infrastructures as targets for violent
attacks or political blackmail will probably increase. These infrastructures will thus become
even more critical and will require direct and indirect protective measures and therefore
capital investment. Non-state actors could take on a substantial role in this scenario.
Implications for Germany: With prices and supply rates increasingly fluctuating after
peak oil, an interruption of the supplies of fossil or electric energy would have profound
consequences for all economic cycles. As a result of peak oil, the protection of critical energy
infrastructures would thus become more important in order to prevent further disruptions
that could possibly threaten the system. To prevent disruption of oil and natural gas supplies,
which could influence the national economy considerably, the protection of import and
delivery channels will likely become increasingly relevant to importing countries such as
Germany. This would not only affect oil infrastructures – mainly sea routes and ports – but
gas infrastructures, too, caused by the expected substitution effect at a later stage. Natural
gas infrastructures do not only include pipelines on land and at sea, but also, owing to the
spread of LNG technology, sea routes, ports and liquefaction plants. Besides protective
measures for pipelines and sea routes in Germany, the support of or cooperation with trade
partners in matters of security will most likely become increasingly important to ensure a
steady supply of oil and natural gas. This would also bring maritime aspects into focus.
Ocean-going naval forces providing escort and protection could become significantly more
important for keeping open international sea routes in cases of emergency. In this context, as
in the protection of transnational supply lines, international cooperation between affected
states seems sensible in order to reduce the burden on individual states.
With the transition to renewable energy sources and the increasing electrification of energy
supplies, the electrical energy infrastructure is becoming ever more important for modern
society and will most likely be brought further into the focus of national security. Electric
power grids will thus become even more critical infrastructures. This does not only concern
grids on national territory. 192 To make the European electricity network more stable and
resistant to disruption, mains systems are necessary that can withstand partial failures or
fluctuations without major cascade effects and provide various redundancies and regulation
mechanisms. Especially the further development of renewable energies requires such flexible,
robust and both efficient and extensive distribution grids, including decentralised electricity
storage. Given the ramified European network, close multilateral cooperation on this issue
will most likely become more important. In light of the transition to renewable energies,
considerable investment into the modification and expansion of energy infrastructure is
expected. Considering their increasing criticality, investment into the security of these energy
infrastructures will thus also be necessary, which will, however, be faced with consistently
tight national budgets and economisation goals that affect national security institutions, even
in Germany. The capabilities and capacities of the Bundeswehr could nevertheless become
more relevant to the protection of these infrastructures.
192 To protect these grids, sensor-based remote monitoring systems for electricity pylons and stations are for instance already being developed in the United States.
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