PEAK OIL

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Concentrating energy relations in large-scale alliances that, although transnational and sometimes transcontinental, are still regionally oriented at their core, would reduce the need for securing or stabilising distant access points to energy resources in remote (on a global scale) regions. This focus combined with limited capacities for international involvement caused by peak oil could promote an already visible regionalisation of international relations, thus possibly changing not only the role of traditional players in energy policy, such as OPEC, but also affecting traditional alliances. Against this background, cooperation in extended energy regions could as well change the focus and perspective of German and European foreign and security policy. Further issues / need for research: 1. Which challenges for foreign and security policy would result from the development of extended, tendentially self-contained energy regions based on renewable energy sources (e.g. effects of the DESERTEC project on German policy)? 2. How do these developments in turn affect existing political, economic and security alliances both world-wide and in individual regions? 3. Beyond securing critical infrastructures, which contributions to the development and expansion as well as to the long-term security of these energy regions would national security institutions have to make in the next decades? initiatives promoted by ECPA are directed at developing what is referred to as the “clean energy sector”. The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) of the US Department of Energy “is involved in several projects currently underway, including a renewable energy center and solar power project in Chile, energy efficiency centers in Peru and Costa Rica, wind energy in Mexico, renewable energy strategy development in the Caribbean, and wind power in Dominica.” Apart from this, bilateral projects with Brazil, Canada, Chile, Columbia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and other countries are underway. Cf. US Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy/International Activities, http://www1.eere.energy.gov/international/printable_versions/americas.html, (accessed on 27 October 2010). 86
4.8. Effects of Peak Oil on Armed Forces Severe impediments to mobility as a consequence of peak oil would have a considerable effect on all German security bodies, including the Bundeswehr. 196 In the long run, not only all societies and economies worldwide but armed forces as well will be faced with the various and difficult challenges of transformation towards a “post-fossil” age. Implications for Germany: A markedly reduced mobility of the German Armed Forces would have various consequences – not only for the available equipment and training, but also for their (global) power projection and intervention capabilities. Given the size and complexity of many transport and weapon systems as well as the high standards set for qualities like robustness in operation, alternative energy and drive propulsion systems would hardly be available to the necessary extent in the short term. One of the consequences to be initially expected would be further cutbacks in the use of large weapon systems for training purposes in all services, thus raising the need for more “virtualised” training. However, effects on current and planned missions would most likely be even more severe. Deployment to the theatre of operations, the operation of bases and the mission itself are considerably more energy- and above all fuel-intensive than the mere upkeep of armed forces. 197 Rapid operations of highly mobile forces, which are regularly deployed by air, would be particularly affected, as well as air force missions, laying severe restrictions upon these types of operations. Despite being common practice, alternative solutions for deployment like increased rail transport or a markedly more efficient transport of equipment, supplies or even personnel by ship are unlikely to provide full substitution. 198 Especially with regard to deployments from railway stations and sea ports into the operations area (“the last mile”) and deployments within theatres of operations lacking access to sea or railway, combustion engine based drive propulsion systems will not as easily be substitutable. The same applies to tactical mobility. While conflicts in (remote) troubled regions could thus potentially increase with peak oil (see Chapter 3.3), the corresponding world-wide – including humanitarian – involvement of armed forces could be even further restricted in terms of resources. Such involvement could thus become even more politically and economically controversial and harder to put through – especially if it requires a relatively large commitment of equipment and personnel by the military in order to succeed. National, non-mission-related deployment over a wide area, 196 In addition to economic problems, some states could see challenged their armed forces’ capacity to act. 197 Currently, especially the transport of fuel to the area of deployment ties up considerable logistic and ultimately military resources. “The example that I like to use is getting a gallon of gasoline to a Marine front line unit in Afghanistan. You have to put that gallon of gasoline on a tanker. You've got to take it across the Pacific. You have to put it into a truck, and truck it over the Hindu Kush and down through Afghanistan. Now, as you do this, you've got to guard it.” Ray Mabus, SECNAV Discusses Future Of Alternative Energy Sources, Navy News Service, June 2010; “Although fuel costs represent less than 3 percent of the Defense Department budget, indirect costs such as those for transporting fuel to battlefields and distributing it to the end-user, add to the total. When the cost of the army's entire logistics network is added to the cost of delivered fuel, gas prices are $13-$19 per gallon. In the air force, these costs can be much higher, military grade jet fuel delivered through aerial refueling costs upwards of $42 a gallon.” Sohbet Karbuz, “Can the U.S. military move to renewable fuels?”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/canthe-us-military-move-to-renewable-fuels (accessed on 14 October 2010). 198 Such as the current relocation of US armed forces from Iraq, with partial relocation of materiel to Afghanistan by sea and rail. 87
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Armed Forces, Capabilities and Tech
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Foreword The Bundeswehr Transformat
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Frequent questions #1 What Does Pea
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1. Introduction In this first part
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production development of oil field
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2. The Importance of Oil 2.1. Oil a
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identifies the maintaining of free
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utilizable for small non-state grou
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and, in turn, on the respective pro
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Note: Producer countries as well as
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Figure 2: The Overall Potential of
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3. Possible Developments after Glob
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demanded resource and (2) by succes
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Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) bo
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diplomacy and the provision of attr
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y bilateral agreements, the intensi
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3.1.2 Changed Distribution of Roles
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Page 112: Further Peak Oil Task Force Reports
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