PEAK OIL

challenges resulting from the location of natural gas deposits in the sea and in northern
regions will be the same as with the extended exploitation of non-conventional oil reserves.
Expansion of nuclear energy and increased proliferation
Further, partially massive expansion of nuclear energy, which has become apparent in some
countries already today, has in the past been seen as an answer to and part of the way out of
the oil crisis. If the energy structure is "electrified" further, nuclear energy as well as
renewable energies, above all, can make a substantial contribution as a substitute to receding
fossil energy sources. 116 There are varying estimates as to how long nuclear raw materials,
such as uranium ore, will last but these lie mostly above the estimates for oil. 117 Leaving the
problems of safety and ultimate waste disposal aside, many countries see nuclear energy as a
comparatively cheap form of energy which also helps to reduce CO2 emissions. However,
more nuclear energy would at least increase the statistic probability of accidents occurring
which, if exceeding a certain severity, may have dramatic and destabilising regional ecological
consequences with global impacts. This holds true even more when further threshold or even
developing countries with other, partially "weaker", institutional security mechanisms and
technological competences start exploiting nuclear power. In addition, external ecological
effects of uranium mining, detrimental to the environment already today, the use of natural
water resources to cool nuclear power plants, the dismantling of old, shut-down plants and
the problem of the ultimate waste disposal render an ecological overall view even more
complicated.
Above all, the expansion of nuclear energy aggravates the problem of proliferation. Given a
deteriorating energy situation, it will become more and more difficult for the world
community to restrict or control access to nuclear technologies or their use by "critical" states
or crisis countries. Despite the efforts of the international community to establish effective
monitoring and control mechanisms, these could increasingly be circumvented and sanctions
become increasingly less enforceable. Moreover, given declining national oil reserves, the
economic incentive to sell or transfer nuclear technology and/or nuclear material may grow
substantially, not only in oil-exporting countries. Even oil-importing, industrialised countries
may be inclined to transfer their nuclear technology in return for energy resources as part of
a political package deal. Despite all efforts to prevent uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear
technology which can always be used for military purposes, such incentives or even simple
economic opportunities and necessities may put existing contractual obligations or even
alliance memberships into perspective. Thus, as a tendency, more states may turn into
potential or actual nuclear powers - with impacts on international and regional balances and
alliance systems.
116 This concerns the primary energy consumption by industry and households as well as the transport business due to a more intensive use of rail transport and expansion
of electromobility.
117 According to calculations by the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD, it will last between 50 and 70 years. A report entitled "Uranium: Resources, Production and
Demand", issued by the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD (OECD/NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and also known as the "Red Book", is
published every two years. Cf.: Daniel Lübbert and Felix Lange, Uran als Kernbrennstoff: Vorräte und Reichweite, Deutscher Bundestag, Info-Brief (Berlin, 2006),
http://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/analysen/2006/Uran_als_Kernbrennstoff-Vorraete_und_Reichweite.pdf (accessed on 13 October2010).
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