PEAK OIL

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utilizable for small non-state groups. The necessary infrastructure to recover, transport, refine and sell oil calls for a relatively stable (state) environment. The control of an oil field alone is not sufficient, transport routes and possible transshipment centres such as seaports must also be freely accessible. What is more, there has been no functioning international black market thus far for oil and natural gas. In addition, resources can be more than just the cause or the trigger of conflicts. They may also become a conflict resource themselves, with their use providing a basis for financing conflictive confrontations. 34 Resources can therefore also prolong and escalate ongoing conflicts, and an additional conflict can arise over the resource itself as a conflict resource if various conflict parties wish to access it. The examples and potential conflict constellations outlined here clearly show that the debate on oil, its conflict potential and possible security policy implications are based on an extended security concept involving far-reaching consequences for the actors involved as well as approaches and tools needed to contain or solve conflicts. Chapter 3.3. looks at the possible effects of peak oil on the above-mentioned conflict constellations and also addresses the dimension of conflict within import countries and the special conflict case of a system crisis induced by peak oil, which is described in Chapter 3.2. 34 Cf. Solveig Richter and Jörn Richert, "Kooperation oder Eskalation? Warum Rohstoffknappheit nicht zwangsläufig zu Konflikten führt", in Internationale Politik, November/December 2009, 10-16, in this case p. 11ff., http://www.internationalepolitik.de/ip/archiv/jahrgang-2009/earth--wind-fire/download/1dec21cc7b552a8c21c11dea75b65d7b87564156415/original_11_richter_richert.pdf (accessed on 13 October 2010). 16
2.3. Oil and Aspects of German Energy Security Depending on context, the term "energy security" is used and operationalised in different ways. Generally, energy security is understood as "provision of inexpensive, reliable and environmentally friendly energy" 35 . The German Government defines energy security as a "secure, sustainable and competitive supply of energy" 36 . These definitions refer to the "triangle of political goals comprising supply security, cost-efficiency and environmental compatibility", which is what the term "energy security" actually means. A baseline study conducted for the EU (DGTREN) by the Clingendael Institute for International Relations (CIEP) in Den Haag lends the term "energy security" a narrower definition and sees it as the use of political means to minimise the risk of energy crises. 37 In this context, energy crises are lasting imbalances between supply and demand, which provoke price jumps and have negative effects on the economies concerned. Energy security policy therefore aims at preventing energy supply shortages or even supply disruptions. Regarding oil, political interest focussed for a long time – and logically enough for importing countries – on the minimisation of dependences to prevent shortages. 38 More recent studies39 extend this concept to include aspects such as the observation of environmental and climate protection goals, which potentially place other demands on a sustainable energy policy: inclusion of the technological environment for transforming societies of the fossil era into societies of the post-fossil era, consideration of uncertainties regarding the development of energy demand, e.g. in the wake of recessions, including the risks this poses for producer countries, or as well conditioning of national energy policy through the respective nation’s integration in supranational organisations. This broader understanding became necessary mainly due to globalisation of the energy markets, which has led to increasing frictions between various actors on different levels. Peak oil would have effects on all of the above-mentioned energy security aspects. These effects are addressed in the following chapters. An extensive analysis of all these problem areas and their interdependences would, however, exceed the boundaries of this study. In order to estimate Germany’s long-term oil supply situation it is important to look at various factors and their complex interrelations. Examples are Germany’s dependence on oil 35 Sascha Müller-Kraenner, Energiesicherheit. Die neue Vermessung der Welt (Munich, 2007:Verlag Antje Kunstmann), 7. 36 Federal Ministry of Defence, White Paper 2006 on German Security Policy and the Future of the Bundeswehr, 20. 37Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), Study on Energy Supply Security and Geopolitics. Final Report (Den Haag, 2004), 36ff. 38 Cf. Vlado Vivoda, "Evaluating energy security in the Asia-Pacific region: A novel methodological approach", in Energy Policy, 38 (9), September 2010, 5258-5263 (here: 5258). 39 Cf. Andreas Beyer, Theoretische und methodische Grundlagen zur Analyse von Energie- und Energiesicherheitspolitik, Kieler Analysen zur Sicherheitspolitik, No. 27 (Kiel ,February 2010), http://www.isuk.org/1/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Kieler_Analysen_zur_Sicherheitspolitik%20Nr.%2027.pdf (accessed on 11 October 2010); cf. Matthias Christoph Pröfrock, Energieversorgungssicherheit im Recht der Europäischen Union/ Europäischen Gemeinschaften, Dissertation (Tübingen, 2007), http://tobias-lib.uni-tuebingen.de/volltexte/2007/3012/pdf/Dissertation_Proefrock_Energieversorgungssicherheit.pdf (accessed on 11 October 2010). 17
Page 1 and 2: Armed Forces, Capabilities and Tech
Page 3: Foreword The Bundeswehr Transformat
Page 6 and 7: Frequent questions #1 What Does Pea
Page 8 and 9: 1. Introduction In this first part
Page 10 and 11: production development of oil field
Page 12 and 13: 2. The Importance of Oil 2.1. Oil a
Page 14 and 15: identifies the maintaining of free
Page 18 and 19: and, in turn, on the respective pro
Page 20 and 21: Note: Producer countries as well as
Page 22 and 23: Figure 2: The Overall Potential of
Page 24 and 25: 3. Possible Developments after Glob
Page 26 and 27: demanded resource and (2) by succes
Page 28 and 29: Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) bo
Page 30 and 31: diplomacy and the provision of attr
Page 32 and 33: y bilateral agreements, the intensi
Page 34 and 35: 3.1.2 Changed Distribution of Roles
Page 36 and 37: Figure 4: Variance in the Relation
Page 38 and 39: its fundamental philosophy. 94 As a
Page 40 and 41: 3.1.3 Exploration of Further and Al
Page 42 and 43: Natural gas as an extension of the
Page 44 and 45: With an increasing transfer of nucl
Page 46 and 47: Figure 5: International Land Leases
Page 48 and 49: area, adapting it optimally to the
Page 50 and 51: Food sector uncertainties If nothin
Page 52 and 53: Upheaval in economic structures Sin
Page 54 and 55: marketing and using motor vehicles
Page 56 and 57: 3.2 The Systemic Risk of Exceeding
Page 58 and 59: In the medium term, the global econ
Page 60 and 61: cases, to a collapse. The danger of
Page 62 and 63: Conflicts can arise when the global
Page 64 and 65: constellations, which would be visi
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Germany could achieve further diver
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4.2 Shaping Supply Relationships wi
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term strategy for the development o
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Since conventional oil resources ar
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uncertainty of future defence budge
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4.4 Potential for Conflict and Coop
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total number of deployed armed forc
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4.5. The Proliferation of Nuclear T
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Further issues / need for research:
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Non-state actors could also increas
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Concentrating energy relations in l
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which is connected with mobility an
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Further issues / need for research:
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The development of an external ener
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Frequent questions #1 What Does Pea
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and that there will therefore be no
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#2 How Do Critics Argue against Pea
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Table 2: Predictions regarding deve
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#3 What Types of Resources are ther
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#4 What is the Difference between C
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#6 How Do Oil Refineries Work? The
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#8 Are there Ways for the Bundesweh
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