PEAK OIL

constellations, which would be visible, for example, along the different and partly extremely
divergent agendas, characters, organisational cultures, time horizons, means and objectives
of state, non-state and sub-state actors.
(D) Possible new conflict constellations
In addition to a change in conflict factors and players within the constellations described
above, the spectrum could also expand to include new conflict constellations under peak oil
conditions. These would primarily be conflicts in importing countries, which may have to
deal with a difficult process of transformation into a post-fossil society and economy, and in
which this change could lead to considerable social challenges and shifts, as described in
Chapter 3.1.4. In the worst case, even systemic crises in the form of tipping points as
described in Chapter 3.2. could arise. These crises are likely to emanate from highly
industrialised importing countries and, as a result of their global effects, to create a
fundamentally new conflict constellation involving only rudimentarily analysable security
policy implications.
And so, while the conflict constellations frequently discussed in connection with oil will not
inevitably intensify under peak oil conditions, they will change in terms of conflict-generating
factors, interaction, actors and conflict dynamics, and possibly expand to include new
constellations and complexities. This may make their containment, if need be, more difficult.
From the possibly changing conflict factors, players and lines, however, potential for
cooperation and conflict solution may arise as well. New integration dynamics could be
created, for example, if closer institutional and economic cooperation became necessary for
the functioning of increasingly volatile energy markets beneficial to all market players.
Although the transition towards post-fossil societies can, as described in Chapter 3.1.3 and
Section (B), involve conflict potential, an acceleration of the transition to renewable energies
and raw materials could nevertheless also promote cooperative approaches, for example as
part of technology exchange and transfer activities, particularly under integration of nonstate
actors such as global companies that could considerably push forward such a process.
As a result, a virtually globally supported and, to a certain extent, considerably accelerated
transition towards renewable energies could be associated with “win-win” situations
combining economic, social and ecological interests and which would be nourished by the
involvement of many and, most importantly, cooperating players. In this context, greater
involvement on the part of non-state actors might not only considerably increase the
complexity but also the dynamics of relevant constellations – both in conflictive and in
cooperative direction.
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