PEAK OIL

diplomacy and the provision of attractive compensations – whether material or political in
nature – by the importing countries would be of particular importance.
(1) Conditioned supply relationships and package deals
In view of a decrease in production and the producing countries’ need to satisfy their own oil
demands, it can be assumed that supply relationships would become increasingly selective,
and thus attractive return services beyond net sales revenues would become more important
as a criterion for selecting privileged recipient countries. Owing to this, the global oil market
could adhere to free market rules only to a limited extent. Just as before the oil crises in the
1970s, bilateral conditioned supply relationships and privileged partnerships would once
again come to the fore. 73
Buyers with the ability to submit appropriate offers or to meet the particular conditions
would be in a position to undermine global market mechanisms and negotiate their own
pricing and supply agreements. This situation could lead to an increase in package deals. 74 .
In general, goods and services that – similar to oil – strengthen the economic power of the
producer countries or its possibilities to exert political influence would be particularly
suitable as compensations for such package deals. 75 Producer countries could progressively
demand material and/or political trade-offs that might aid them in closing their technology
gap, in overcoming their economic stagnation or, in many cases, in emerging from their
political isolation. In international negotiations, for example, importing countries that are
represented in relevant bodies like the UN Security Council could act as an advocate for the
interests of countries that are rich in resources and influence or block relevant decision
processes in their favour. Even though such "deals" can be observed already, this trend might
grow considerably. With regard to important oil-producing countries such as Sudan and Iran,
China, for example, is already under suspicion of preventing sanctions and thus protecting
the regimes in Khartoum and Tehran by its voting behaviour in the UN Security Council. 76
Goods that cannot be freely acquired on the international market, possibly including even
nuclear material, would be of particular interest for package deals. As a result of the
significance that these sensitive goods would presumably gain, sanctions and restrictions
with regard to these goods might be weakened, and alongside oil-exporting countries this
would lead to a betterment in the international system of countries offering these goods.
Importing countries could face another challenge if ideological aspects and differences also
played an increasingly important role in the choice of selective oil supplies and privileged
partnerships. Relations among oil-importing countries would not be characterised by straight
73 Already today, some OPEC member states insist on contract clauses that restrict the right of the buyer to resell oil to third countries.
74 A package deal is a business transaction (contract) which, in order to be finalised, includes the compulsory conclusion of a second business transaction (contract), thus
establishing a direct dependence between both business transactions or contracts.
75 These include defence materiel, technologies for oil production and transport, but also technologies for alternative energy supply, capabilities to secure critical
infrastructure, to explore non-conventional oil reserves and to carry out military operations in extreme climate zones. In addition, access to other resources and base or
transit rights are also possible compensations.
76 Cf. Cf. Frank Sieren, "Der letzte Freund", in DIE ZEIT Online, No 9, 25 February 2010, http://www.zeit.de/2010/09/China-Iran (accessed on 11 October 2010).
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