PEAK OIL

4.3 Balancing out Interest and Values in Foreign Policy
Peak oil promotes the primacy of energy security, which could foster pragmatism and selfinterest
in international relations to the detriment of foreign policy based on values.
Implications for Germany: Although the necessity of balancing out self-interest and
ethical values in foreign policy is already relevant today, peak oil could introduce a new
dynamic to the situation. The then possible new selectivity in supply relationships may lead
to some countries appearing to be more convenient partners; that is, those whose foreign
policy is deeply rooted in the principle of non-interference in other countries’ affairs, and
thus in the absence of political conditionality. In light of global peak oil and efforts to
establish strong, reliable relationships with oil-producing countries, value-based concepts of
foreign, security and development policy may increasingly become subject to pressure to
conform to more pragmatic rival models, like those already pursued by China and India.
A security policy more strongly focused on (economic) self-interest would be subject to
special restrictions in Germany and, as evidenced by the discussions surrounding
Bundeswehr operations abroad and Horst Köhler’s resignation as Germany’s Federal
President, to extensive debate in politics and society. Especially in the Middle East and North
Africa, Germany struggles to define its interests, which involve an element of power politics
that has strong negative connotations in Germany and is irreconcilable with recent German
history. Particularly in these regions, which are most important for future global energy
security, Germany is thus mindful to emphasis ethical values as an important motivation.
The possible field of tension between self-interest and ethical values based policies, often
taking effect at different time horizons, becomes apparent for example in the conflicting goals
of necessary short-term cooperation with authoritarian regimes in the field of energy and
security on the one hand and the long-term interest in bringing about a change in these
regimes on the other. 178 Depending on the energy supply situation in the affected importing
countries, this could not only lead to double standards in foreign policy, but also to
compromises in efforts of democratisation and political conditionality when dealing with
producer countries, which would diminish the credibility of importing countries and could
become tantamount to support for authoritarian regimes. However, there is evidence that
policies based on self-interest and ethical values are not necessarily mutually exclusive. A
combination of both approaches, however, would be a special challenge for German security
policy particularly in light of peak oil, which could shift the alignment of political efforts in
the short term towards a focus on achieving supply security.
Due to limited capacities in security policy actionability - which will most likely be further
reduced with peak oil - a focused definition of security policy interests irrespective of
enduring values is essential and the only option to establish security policy priorities, not
least in view of future military operations conducted in a multilateral network. This is true
both on national and European level. Given the limitations of military capacity, the
178 Cf. Guido Steinberg, Deutsche Nah-, Mittelost- und Nordafrikapolitik. Interessen, Strategien, Handlungsoptionen, SWP-Studie (15 May 2009), http://www.swpberlin.org/common/get_document.php?asset_id=5977
(accessed on 14 October 2010).
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