PEAK OIL

Mass unemployment. Modern societies are organised on a division-oflabour
basis and have become increasingly differentiated in the course of their
histories. Many professions are solely concerned with managing this high level
of complexity and no longer have anything to do with the immediate
production of consumer goods. The reduction in the complexity of economies
that is implied here would result in a dramatic increase in unemployment in
all modern societies.
National bankruptcies. In the situation described, state revenues would
evaporate. (New) debt options would be very limited, and the next step would
be national bankruptcies.
Collapse of critical infrastructures. Neither material nor financial
resources would suffice to maintain existing infrastructures. Infrastructure
interdependences, both internal and external with regard to other subsystems,
would worsen the situation.
Famines. Ultimately, production and distribution of food in sufficient
quantities would become challenging.
The developments shown here make it clear that it is essential to secure the supply of energy
to the economic cycle in sufficient quantities to enable positive economic growth. A
contraction in economic activity over an indefinite period of time represents a highly
unstable state that will cause the system to collapse. It is hardly possible to estimate the
security risks that such a development would involve.
An oil supply conversion will not be possible to an equal extent in all world regions before
peak oil occurs. It is likely that a large number of countries will not be able to make the
necessary investments in good time and to the required extent.
Germany is one of the most globalised countries worldwide. 159 The resulting complexity of
our society excellently facilitates adaption to our modern-day environment.
In view of their degree of globalisation, all industrialised countries – including Germany –
face a high systemic risk, regardless of their individual energy policies.
There is a potential “risk of infection” between different subsystems that use the same
infrastructures. One example is the spread of recession from one country to another. To know
the transmission channels of an oil price shock as well as their interdependences is thus
decisive for effective and timely government action. Complex structures must be sustained
with energy (in the broadest sense of the term). In complex systems, an energy withdrawal
will not necessarily lead to a proportional reduction in complexity alone but, in extreme
159 Cf. KOF Index of Globalization, http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/ (accessed on 13 October 2010).
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