PEAK OIL

which is connected with mobility and energy in various ways, could also come into question
in the medium term. 199
In order to prevent a restriction of capabilities and deployment options of the Bundeswehr,
alternative solutions to oil-based fuels would be necessary in the short term. While these
solutions, such as coal liquefaction or in some cases natural gas liquefaction, are possible and
conceivable in principle, they would entail considerable political and economic efforts. 200
They would require considerable investments and radical industrial policy decisions.
Considering the challenges society as a whole would face as a result of peak oil, it seems
unlikely that this could be accomplished even in case of an emergency. Moreover, worldwide
(re-)initiation particularly of coal and gas liquefaction would further expedite both the
shortage of fossil fuels and climate change. Even though cooperation in international
alliances may hold benefits when it comes to technologies or coal and gas reserves, it would
turn coal and gas into even more important and strategic resources and make their national
exploitation a priority. 201 Especially coal could potentially become a “strategic reserve” for
Germany. 202 Besides ensuring the availability of alternative fuel solutions such as liquid coal
or gas at least in technological terms, building up large strategic reserves of fuel for all kinds
of Bundeswehr vehicles, ships and aircraft should be considered in order to bridge supply
shortages for an extended period of time if necessary.
Since armed forces without mobility are utterly inconceivable, the necessity for a long-term
transition to post-fossil forms of mobility is greatly increased. This may even include
dimensions of technological transformation of the armed forces. In the civilian sector, the
transformation of mobility systems towards post-fossil forms and renewable energy has
gathered a lot of momentum – within in the armed forces it has at least begun. 203 Military
systems and especially vehicles can profit from civilian developments in technology in many
ways. For one, increases in efficiency and performance can be achieved through optimisation
of conventional drive propulsion systems. This includes their partial electrification for
combat and transport vehicles and the development of the “More-Electric Aircraft” (MEA)
and the “All-Electric Ship” (AES), which contribute to reducing not only fossil-fuel
consumption but maintenance expenses as well. The trend towards hybridisation of drives is
evident in the military as well, although complete electrification of these drives most likely is
still a distant prospect. 204 The trend towards remote operation, (partial) automation and
autonomisation of reconnaissance and weapon systems (UGV, UAV, UUV) accompanied by a
reduction in size and/or weight also indicates a growing potential of alternative, more
electrified drive propulsion systems. Which type of alternative drive and energy storage will
prevail in the very long term is yet to be determined. The broad use of hydrogen drive
199 Competition for resources with non-military transport services adds to this – they, too, need fuel.
200 In principle, procedures and technologies for coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids conversion are well understood and mastered. Several tests have shown that the
resulting synthesised fuels are well suited for military equipment.
201 Especially natural gas would have to be largely imported, thus merely prolonging the security challenges of the “oil era”.
202 Approx. 50% of worldwide coal extraction is done by China and the United States.
203 As shown (mostly abroad) by countless experiments with or prototypes of fuel cells, biofuels, etc.
204 This is mostly a consequence of the high cost of batteries and a lack of electrical energy infrastructures at locations of deployment. Nevertheless, the United States are
experimenting with an “electrified brigade”.
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