PEAK OIL

interdependences at company level. In a European context, there are two obstacles to be
overcome before a similar course of action can be taken. Firstly, there is a large
implementation problem at the EU level regarding a common EU energy policy, which has so
far prevented the comprehensive implementation of otherwise well-thought-out concepts.
Secondly, Russia installs partly or entirely state-owned companies in strategic key positions
on the EU energy market by applying existing industrial policy provisions.
Unless mutual and thus stable dependences can successfully be formed, the danger of
political exploitation by focusing on a few main suppliers and Russia in particular will
fundamentally increase. In addition, Russia requires a considerable and growing proportion
of the fuels it produces for its own population and its energy-intensive industries. Germany’s
interests in energy supplies from Central Asia as well as from the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA) could therefore further increase. This applies to oil as well as to natural gas
and in the case of the MENA countries also to renewable energies, in particular solar power.
Because of its geostrategic location and fossil resources, the Caspian Region draws the
interest of different powers such as Russia, China and the United States, but also regional
players like Turkey, India and Iran. The EU, in turn, is increasingly making an effort to
develop closer relations with countries in this region. Kazakhstan is the country with the
largest oil resources in Central Asia, and the development of the large Kashagan offshore oil
field171 could lead to a further increase in oil production and export quantities. Today, around
11% of German oil imports come from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Germany could be
interested in expanding supply relations with these countries, but would find itself faced with
the involvement of large investors such as Russia and China.
Russia still considers itself a major regulatory power and uses its monopoly over the regional
pipeline infrastructure to exert considerable influence on the countries in this region. China’s
involvement in the region is growing. In the first half of 2010, about 5 million tons of oil were
delivered from Kazakhstan to China, which represents an increase in supply quantity of 50%
compared to the same period in the previous year. The Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline, which
was brought into operation in 2006, is the first pipeline between China and a foreign country.
It was followed by the opening of the ambitious pipeline project between Russia and China in
October 2010. For China and Russia, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation already
constitutes a discussion platform for the Central Asian region. However, the Central Asian
countries are trying to avoid a one-sided external domination of the region as exercised –
albeit decreasingly so – by Russia. The Georgian crisis has contributed to further damaging
Russia’s reputation in the region and has increased the efforts of Central Asian countries to
cooperate with other players such as China and the EU. At present, China seems to be the
preferred partner, since it is investing large sums in the energy sector without demanding
political reforms, as the EU does. In contrast, Russia lacks economic resources and a long-
171 In addition to Kashagan, the Tengiz and Kamchagarak oil fields are also promising. While oil has been produced at Tengiz and Kamchagarak for several years, the start
of extraction at Kashagan has been postponed to 2012. There are numerous problems regarding the development of the oil fields, primarily the particularly high content of
sulphur in the oil, severe environmental contamination, difficult extraction conditions and correspondingly high costs. For these reasons, the British oil corporation BP,
among others, has pulled out of the development consortium. Cf. Jörg Schindler and Werner Zittel, Zukunft der weltweiten Erdölversorgung (Berlin 2008), 64 f.,
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/2008-05-21_EWG_Erdoelstudie_D.pdf (accessed on 11 October 2010).
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