Urban Poverty & Climate Change in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania:

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or upstream zones, due to clogging and structural interferences along the course of the Msimbazi River. 2.2.4 Droughts From time to time, Tanzania 2 experiences prolonged droughts with severe socioeconomic implications. The drought of 2006 damaged agricultural production, necessitated electricity cuts (and thus industrial production) and cut GDP growth by 1 percent (ClimateWorks Foundation et al., 2009). A number of diseases are related to drought in the country: malnutrition, trachoma, dysentery, cholera, and diarrhea (ibid.). 2.2.5 Climate change projections for Tanzania Temperature By 2100, mean annual temperature for Tanzania is expected to increase by 1.7°C over the northern coast, including areas around Dar es Salaam (Matari et al., 2008) 3 , shown in Figure 12. Figure 13 shows CSAG’s 4 analysis of projected change in monthly mean maximum temperature for Dar es Salaam by the 2050s. Depending on future rainfall regimes, these temperature increases could have wide-ranging effects, such as on urban agriculture (evapotranspiration, heat stress), disease incidence (direct effects of extreme heat on humans, as well as on disease vectors, e.g., by increasing humidity), hydropower generation (increased evaporation in reservoirs), household electricity requirements and a range of other factors of importance for the city’s urban poor. Figure 13 indicates that temperature extremes will rise; Watkiss et al. (2011) looked at the projected increase in number of days exceeding 32°C in Dar es Salaam by 2050, and their results showed significantly increased exceedances, which would affect health as well as labor productivity in the city. 2 It was not possible to obtain drought information for Dar es Salaam for this study. 3 Matari et al. (2008) used the MAGICC/SCENGEN model to derive climate change projections for Tanzania for 2100, using five models and emissions scenario A1B. 4 The analysis by CSAG (published in Watkiss et al., 2011) was conducted using CMIP3 Archive GCMs. Results are shown for the B1 emissions scenario. 26
Figure 12: Projected mean annual temperature change by 2100 S 2 4 6 8 10 12 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 E Source: (Matari et al., 2008) Figure 13: Projections of monthly mean maximum temperature for Dar es Salaam, 2046-2065 Scenario B1 (1961-2000) (2046-2065) The black line represents the multi-model median. The grey envelope represents the envelope of climate model projections for 20th century period. The red envelope represents the future period (2046-2065). Source: Watkiss et al. (2011) Rainfall According to Matari et al. (2008), mean rainfall is projected to increase during the longrain season over coastal areas, including Dar es Salaam, by up to 6 percent by 2100 (Figure 14). These results are also supported by two regional climate models 5 , which 5 The two regional climate models used include (i) PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies), developed by UK Met Office, and (ii) CCLM (COSMO-CLM; COnsortium for Small scale MOdeling – ClimateLimited-areaModelling), maintained and developed by the COSMO Consortium. 27
Page 1 and 2: Final Report Urban Poverty & Climat
Page 3 and 4: 5.2 Relevant policies..............
Page 5 and 6: List of Boxes Box 1 Flood Early War
Page 7 and 8: NLFEP NSSCP NTD PMI PMORALG PRB PRE
Page 9 and 10: over coming decades in Dar es Salaa
Page 11 and 12: 1 Introduction 1.1 Background to th
Page 13 and 14: water is unsafe for household use.
Page 15 and 16: Figure 1(a) shows Dar es Salaam’s
Page 17 and 18: For each location, the area leader
Page 19 and 20: displays the major zones. Natural v
Page 21 and 22: Figure 5: Trend of mean minimum tem
Page 23 and 24: Figure 9: Number of rain days per y
Page 25: Table 2: Information on significant
Page 29 and 30: Figure 15: Projections of monthly p
Page 31 and 32: Table 3 Population and assets expos
Page 33 and 34: climatic events (e.g., the droughts
Page 35 and 36: Bank, 2002). IFPRI (2006) also show
Page 37 and 38: quality. Olvera et al. (2002) state
Page 39 and 40: Several agencies are engaged in hou
Page 41 and 42: water table and poor drainage syste
Page 43 and 44: Figure 20: Illnesses and diseases s
Page 45 and 46: 158 cases of cholera in 2009 (6 bel
Page 47 and 48: providing a suitable breeding groun
Page 49 and 50: asked about strategies used to comb
Page 51 and 52: From Table 5, it may be seen that a
Page 53 and 54: contaminated rivers that not only c
Page 55 and 56: The link between climate and income
Page 57 and 58: 4 The Urban Poverty - Climate Chang
Page 59 and 60: (vi) Kunduchi and Bahari Beach Thes
Page 61 and 62: Figure 25: Flood hazard zone map ov
Page 63 and 64: Photo 3 Waste-dumping along storm-w
Page 65 and 66: disease incidence. Prolonged drough
Page 67 and 68: Figure 28 (b) Modeled flood extent
Page 69 and 70: 4.3 Poverty, pollution and GHG emit
Page 71 and 72: households) and gas (3 percent). Ta
Page 73 and 74: Box 3: Roles of the City Council an
Page 75 and 76: 5.3 Programs and projects 5.3.1 Red
Page 77 and 78:
to give employment priority to comm
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Improvements were undertaken by cit
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5.3.3 Mitigation-Friendly Policies
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4 GEF Trust Fund - Climate Change f
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6.1 Proposed areas for support Supp
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change, so that they could formulat
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• In-depth analysis is needed of
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Kyessi, S and Kyessi, A. (2007). Re
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93 Annex 1 (a) URBAN POVERTY AND CL
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Table 2: Construction Materials Wal
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...................................
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31. How does your water taste: 1.Go
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1. Monthly ( ) 2. Three to six mont
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49. Rank five (5) major problems fa
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54. What activities/behaviour pract
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water drainage channel 2.1 Assessme
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109 Annex 1(b) URBAN POVERTY AND CL
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No 1 Name of City Program Instituti
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113 Annex 1 (c) URBAN POVERTY AND C
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3 Environmental Monitoring 4 Beach
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No Type of poverty alleviation supp
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KEY INFORMANT INTERVIEW CHECKLIST 1
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Dar Es Salaam Administrative Struct
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CITY COUNCIL Officials Interviewed
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Ubungo Kibangu Paul Thomas Tabata-M
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A simplified flowchart of the metho
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connected together by connection no
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