Figure 28 (c) Modeled flood extent for <strong>Dar</strong> <strong>es</strong> <strong>Salaam</strong> case study area show<strong>in</strong>g a 50-year return period 68 Source: Ardhi University (2011)
4.3 <strong>Poverty</strong>, pollution and GHG emitt<strong>in</strong>g activiti<strong>es</strong> 4.3.1 Overview <strong>Climate</strong> change is of relevance for <strong>Dar</strong> <strong>es</strong> <strong>Salaam</strong> primarily <strong>in</strong> terms of its ability to exacerbate the current vulnerability of poor r<strong>es</strong>idents who historically have contributed little to the problem. Adaptation, and consideration of climate change <strong>in</strong> city development polici<strong>es</strong> and programs, is therefore of utmost importance. However, mitigation is also worth consider<strong>in</strong>g, from two perspectiv<strong>es</strong>. Firstly, although per capita emissions are currently low, the co-benefits aspects of mitigation may render such actions very worthwhile; conserv<strong>in</strong>g for<strong>es</strong>ts and reduc<strong>in</strong>g r<strong>es</strong>piratory illn<strong>es</strong>s through improved air-quality are two exampl<strong>es</strong> of local benefits that could ensue from greenhouse gas emissions reduction efforts. Secondly, <strong>Dar</strong> <strong>es</strong> <strong>Salaam</strong>’s emissions are expected to rise markedly over the com<strong>in</strong>g years, due to factors such as heavy rural and urban dependence on biomass energy, unreliable electricity supply, and expansion of urbanization, <strong>in</strong>dustrialization and transportation activiti<strong>es</strong>. There is thus a need to th<strong>in</strong>k ahead and consider options for clean technology and improvements <strong>in</strong> energy efficiency. <strong>Tanzania</strong>’s Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC provid<strong>es</strong> <strong>in</strong>formation on national sectoral greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals. <strong>Tanzania</strong>’s total GHG emissions <strong>in</strong> 2003 were 64,885 Gg (URT, 2003), with the Land Use and For<strong>es</strong>try sector contribut<strong>in</strong>g 87 percent of all emissions, <strong>in</strong>dicat<strong>in</strong>g a high dependence on natural r<strong>es</strong>ourc<strong>es</strong> by poor rural communiti<strong>es</strong>. For<strong>es</strong>ts and woodlands cover about 34 million hectar<strong>es</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Tanzania</strong>, compris<strong>in</strong>g about 40 percent of its land. Defor<strong>es</strong>tation is <strong>es</strong>timated at between 130,000 to 500,000 hectar<strong>es</strong> per annum (Malimbwi and Zahabu, 2008) with major reasons be<strong>in</strong>g harv<strong>es</strong>t<strong>in</strong>g for woodfuel (charcoal and firewood) and timber, and land clear<strong>in</strong>g for the expansion of agriculture. Accord<strong>in</strong>g to URT (2003), removal of CO2 is 6 percent of total CO2 emitted by various sourc<strong>es</strong>. Charcoal is produced <strong>in</strong> rural areas and consumed <strong>in</strong> citi<strong>es</strong> and towns, where consumers prefer it to firewood due to: (i) its higher calorific value per unit weight than firewood, (ii) the fact that this mak<strong>es</strong> it is more economic to transport charcoal over longer distanc<strong>es</strong> as compared to firewood, (iii) storage of charcoal tak<strong>es</strong> l<strong>es</strong>s room compared to firewood, (iv) charcoal is not prone to deterioration by <strong>in</strong>sects and fungi, which attack firewood, and (v) charcoal is almost smokel<strong>es</strong>s and sulphur free, as such it is ideal fuel for towns and citi<strong>es</strong> (Kaale, 2005 <strong>in</strong>: Malimbwi and Zahabu, 2008). Even though waste management contribut<strong>es</strong> a small percent to national emissions (l<strong>es</strong>s than 1 percent; URT, 2003), this sector offers significant opportunity for city-level qualitative improvements for r<strong>es</strong>idents as well as the potential to reduce GHG emissions. At pr<strong>es</strong>ent, <strong>Dar</strong> <strong>es</strong> <strong>Salaam</strong> generat<strong>es</strong> 3,841 tons of solid waste per day, with a high proportion (33 percent) generated <strong>in</strong> unplanned settlements (<strong>Dar</strong> <strong>es</strong> <strong>Salaam</strong> City Council, 2010). 69
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