Urban Poverty & Climate Change in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania:

Figure 17: Exposed population in Dar es Salaam in 2005, 2030, 2050 and 2070 to a 1 in 100 year
flood event under the A1B mid-range SLR scenario, no adaptation
2.2.6 Implications of climate change for Dar es Salaam
Source: Watkiss et al. (2011)
As discussed in greater detail in Section 3, a large proportion of Dar es Salaam’s
population lives in informal, unplanned settlements and the majority of these residents
are poor. Vulnerability to current climate conditions is high, and is a function of socioeconomic
factors (high population and overcrowding, poverty, malnutrition, exposure to
disease), lack of adequate infrastructure and municipal services (e.g., waste removal,
provision of clean water, access to working sanitation and drainage systems), poor
hygienic practices, and climate variability (heavy rainfall, drought). Heavy rainfall
frequently causes flooding in the settlements, and, among other problems, contributes to
increased disease incidence. Drought, too, is associated with increased disease incidence
in limiting the availability of clean water.
Given the city’s current ‘adaptation deficit’ 6 and poor integration of disaster risk
management approaches in urban planning, climate change is likely to exacerbate
vulnerability over coming decades, particularly taken in conjunction with urban
population growth and the increasing concentration of economic assets. Although future
rainfall patterns are uncertain, variability is likely to increase and intensification of heavy
rainfall is expected. Thus flooding may become an increasingly severe issue, particularly
taken together with socio-economic projections, unless adaptation measures are
implemented. Increases in mean temperature, combined with fewer rainy days per year,
could also prolong the length of dry seasons or intensify droughts. Recent extreme
6 I.e., its inability to cope adequately with existing conditions.