Urban Poverty & Climate Change in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania:

disease incidence. Prolonged drought would affect water and electricity, with adverse
implications for health, agriculture, agribusiness, and small business enterprise in the city.
4.3.1 Flood modeling
Ardhi University undertook a flood modeling exercise that would provide an indication of the
effects of climate change on flooding in Dar es Salaam by mapping potential changes in
rainfall regime and sea level rise on the flood extent and depth in at-risk areas that were
covered in the socio-economic surveys implemented by the University of Dar es Salaam. A
combined 1D-2D hydrodynamic model known as SOBEK was used (developed by Delft
Hydraulics Software). This flood propagation model required spatial data (including a digital
elevation model and surface roughness estimates) and temporal data (such as initial water
level, and downstream and upstream boundary conditions).
Figure 27 shows a map of Dar es Salaam with case study area outlined that was used for the
modeling. Figures 28 (a), (b) and (c) show flood extents for floods with a 5, 10, and 50 year
return period, using varying rainfall magnitudes taking sea level rise into account (kept
constant across the maps).
Detailed information on the digital elevation model used, and flood model parameters,
schematization, calibration and scenarios, is available in Annex 5.
Figure 27 Dar es Salaam showing a case study involved in modelling
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Source: Ardhi University (2011)