Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

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Recidivism in Australia: findings and future research
In terms of Children’s Court appearances, the three NSW studies reported that 30 percent
(Cain 1998), 37 percent (Carcach and Leverett 1999) and 43 percent (Chen et al. 2005) of
juveniles would reappear at least once before the NSW Children’s Court. These differences
are not small with, for example, 40% more juveniles being classified as recidivists in the Chen
et al. (2005) study than in the Cain study. What is interesting is that for the most part, these
three studies are quite similar in context – they use similar data sources from within the same
jurisdiction and from the same court – and this is what makes their difference more interesting.
Consider the following:
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Cain (1998) examined court convictions, not court appearances as in Carcach and Leverett
(1999) and Chen et al (2005). This means that not only was the sample of offenders different
(convictees vs. all court attendees), so too were the events used to identify recidivism.
Convictions are likely to underestimate recidivism compared with attendances.
Cain (1998) and Chen et al (2005) examined recidivism for up to eight years, whereas
Carcach and Leverett (1999) followed offenders for a maximum of four years. Longer
observation periods are likely to yield higher recidivism estimates.
Cain (1998) examined recidivism of any juvenile appearing before the court over an eight
year period, whereas Carcach and Leverett (1999) and Chen et al (2005) measured
recidivism for a sample of juveniles appearing within a 12 month period only.
Cain (1998) included those convicted in court as early as 1986, whereas Carcach and
Leverett (1999) and Chen et al (2005) examined a sample first appearing in 1992–93,
or 1995 respectively. Over this time there were likely to have been considerable changes
to the ways in which both the police and the courts dealt with juvenile offenders that may
have affected recidivism estimates.
Reconviction of juvenile justice conference participants
Another study conducted in New South Wales was by Luke and Lind (2002). They evaluated
the effectiveness of youth justice conferencing in reducing recidivism. The follow up period
ranged between 27 and 39 months. Recidivism was measured as any new conviction after
appearing in the Children’s Court or participating in a youth justice conference in 1997.
Using survival analysis the study showed that for all juveniles, regardless of conferencing,
the overall probability of reconviction within two years was 0.38 – that is, 38 percent of juveniles
were reconvicted within two years.