Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

Key elements of recidivism
This question has been largely answered by looking at the extent to which each of the data
sources underestimates offending. In every instance of underestimation is a pool of possible
offences that are not being identified throughout the research. However there are a number
of other important issues to be considered. First, inter-jurisdictional offending is unlikely to be
counted as recidivism because each state and territory operates a separate criminal justice
system and therefore the administrative data collected within one jurisdiction will pertain only
to offences committed in that jurisdiction. Should an offender have a police apprehension,
court appearance or corrective services record in another jurisdiction, results will underestimate
recidivism. This includes both retrospective and prospective criminal history analysis.
The inability to measure criminal events across state and territory borders is likely to have its
greatest impact in situations where mobility is high. In general, the probability that an offender
may have moved interstate or overseas, or committed offences in another jurisdiction is high
where the study examines criminal events over a protracted period of time (for example, lifetime
criminal history analysis) or where the offender resides in an area close to state borders. Take,
for example, the relatively small jurisdiction of the Australian Capital Territory. Although it has
an independent policing and criminal justice system, it is completely encircled by New South
Wales. Moreover, it is situated less than 300km from the outer suburban boundary of Sydney,
Australia’s largest city. It is not unreasonable to expect that an offender in the ACT may commit
offences across the border, and have a criminal history record in both jurisdictions.
Second is an offender’s incapacitation. Being incarcerated is one example, where an offender
is unlikely to obtain additional police apprehension records for the period of their imprisonment.
Third is an offender’s complete removal from opportunity for reoffending – serious chronic
illness and hospitalisation, or death will render an offender incapable of having additional
contact with the criminal justice system.
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