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Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

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The implications for recidivism studies are twofold. First, given that most such studies track<br />

reoffend<strong>in</strong>g for relatively limited periods such as two years, any offend<strong>in</strong>g dur<strong>in</strong>g this period<br />

which results <strong>in</strong> a delayed apprehension will not be counted <strong>in</strong> the study. Second, it may also<br />

affect any estimate of the time taken by an <strong>in</strong>dividual to reoffend. For example, if an <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />

commits two separate crim<strong>in</strong>al events on consecutive days, but is not apprehended for the<br />

second event until some months later, it will appear as if they ‘survived’ for several months before<br />

reoffend<strong>in</strong>g when <strong>in</strong> fact, there was only one day separat<strong>in</strong>g the actual events. The reverse may<br />

also apply. An offender may commit two events several months apart, but their apprehension<br />

for the first event may result <strong>in</strong> the police becom<strong>in</strong>g aware of, <strong>and</strong> quickly lay<strong>in</strong>g a fresh<br />

apprehension report for the second event. In this situation, the time between offend<strong>in</strong>g will<br />

appear to be relatively short – possibly a matter of days when <strong>in</strong> fact there were months<br />

separat<strong>in</strong>g the two events.<br />

Court appearance/conviction data<br />

Once an offender has been apprehended <strong>and</strong> charged with a crim<strong>in</strong>al offence the matters<br />

usually result <strong>in</strong> an appearance at court. These appearances are the result of an <strong>in</strong>vestigation<br />

<strong>and</strong> subsequent decision by the prosecut<strong>in</strong>g agency to proceed with prosecution. In the majority<br />

of cases, the offender pleads guilty to the offence <strong>and</strong> the court’s role is then to decide whether<br />

to record a conviction <strong>and</strong> what, if any, penalty should be imposed. In other cases, the charges<br />

may be withdrawn or dismissed, or the defendant may choose to plead not guilty <strong>and</strong> go<br />

to trial where a verdict of guilty or not guilty will be h<strong>and</strong>ed down.<br />

As was the case with police data, court databases are structured accord<strong>in</strong>g to a sequence of<br />

events, as illustrated <strong>in</strong> Figure 3. They conta<strong>in</strong> chronological <strong>in</strong>formation on the progress of the<br />

crim<strong>in</strong>al matter as it passes from the police apprehension phase to first court appearance,<br />

through to determ<strong>in</strong>ation of guilt or <strong>in</strong>nocence, <strong>and</strong> the imposition of a conviction <strong>and</strong> sentence.<br />

This sequence of events provides two proxy recidivism measures that are assumed to represent<br />

an underly<strong>in</strong>g pattern of offend<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

•<br />

•<br />

Key elements of recidivism<br />

an <strong>in</strong>dividual appears <strong>in</strong> court, irrespective of the outcome of that appearance<br />

an <strong>in</strong>dividual has been found guilty by the court or has pleaded guilty. This second option<br />

excludes all cases where the defendant was found not guilty, or where all charges were<br />

dismissed or dropped by prosecution.<br />

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